- SWFX market sentiment is neutral
- Pending orders in the 100-pip range are neutral
- US Data releases have been moved to Thursday
During the last twenty four hours the EUR/USD has increased its volatility to a 100 base point range. Although, on Wednesday morning after the highly volatile period the rate seemed to have passed most technical support levels and signalled in various ways that tit would decline down to the 1.1260 mark.
The European Single Currency appreciated against the US Dollar, following the US FOMC Meeting Minutes release on Thursday at 19:00 GMT. The EUR/USD exchange currency rate gained 18 pips or 0.16% during a minute, right after the release. The European Single Currency continued trading at the 1.138 area against the US Dollar.
The Federal Reserve releases US FOMC Meeting Minutes where fed officials provide in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.
The minutes said, "Almost all participants expressed the view that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate was likely to be warranted fairly soon".
US data releases are moved
Note that data releases, which were previously scheduled to occur in the US on Wednesday have been moved to Thursday. The reason is the announced public holiday due to the funeral of ex-President Bush.Meanwhile, at 15:00 GMT the Bank of Canada will make an interest rate announcement. This event has caused the largest fluctuations in the forex markets during 2018. This will be the top event for the month for macroeconomic event traders.
At 13:15 GMT on Thursday the ADP Non-Farm Employment change will be published and covered by Dukascopy Analytics on the bank's webinar platform and YouTube channel.
Moreover, the weekly Crude Oil Inventories will be published at 16:00 GMT. This data release causes bounced in oil prices from half a dollar up to ninety cents.
The day will end with the head of the Federal Reserve testifying before the US Congress at 23:45 GMT.
Last but not least will be the Friday's monthly US and Canadian employment data release at 13:30 GMT. This event will also be covered by Dukascopy Analytics.
EUR/USD daily review
During Tuesday's trading session, the rate passed through the SMAs to end the trading session at 1.1335. On Wednesday morning, the European Single Currency was trading between the weekly PP and the monthly PP at the 1.1336 mark.In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the European Single Currency will be trading downwards due to the resistances of the SMAs and the monthly pivot point at the 1.1346. Moreover, it is expected that the rate will trade near the bottom boundary of the medium pattern at the 1.1300 level.
On the other hand, a fundamental announcement could push the rate to break the resistance levels of the technical indicators to trade at the 1.1360 level during the day.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart the currency exchange rate remains in the borders of the descending channel pattern. In the longer term the decline is still expected to occur.
For the decline to begin, the rate has to break free from the pivot points near the 1.1340 level.
Daily chart
Since Monday, the trader open positions on the Swiss Foreign Exchange in regards to the EUR/USD had become perfectly balanced 50/50. Meaning, half of traders were long and the second half were shorting the pair.
Meanwhile, trader pending orders in the 100-pip range on Tuesday morning had also become balanced. This had not changed on Wednesday.
This indicates that a push either upwards or downwards will be caused by the larger players in the forex market and not the retail traders.