- Swiss marke tis 62% bullish on the pair
- 73% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to sell
- Next notable events are on Friday
As it was expected on Wednesday, the GBP/USD currency rate broke the narrow ascending pattern on Thursday. The event resulted in a decline that was bound to reach below the 1.2850 mark.
The Greenback weakened against the British Pound, following the United Kingdom Retail Sales release on Thursday at 08:30 GMT. The GBP/USD currency pair gained 20 pips, or 0.16%.
The Office for National Statistics released UK Retail Sales data that came better-than-expected at 0.7% with the forecasted of 0.2%. The actual data is good for the currency because there come more opportunities for the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.
The Office for National Statistics senior statistician, Rhian Murphy said: "Many consumers stayed away from some high street stores in July, but online sales were very strong, supported by several retailers launching promotions. Food sales remained robust as people continued to enjoy the World Cup and the sunshine."
No notable data until Friday
There are no notable macroeconomic data publications scheduled for Thursday's trading session. Although, note that on Friday there are two very important events scheduled.
Most notable of the two is the scheduled speech of the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium at 14:00 GMT.
Meanwhile, macroeconomic data release traders will pay most attention at 12:30 GMT on Friday. At that time the US Durable Goods Orders data sets will be published. The event will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics on the bank's live webinar platform. The cover will start at 12:20 GMT.
GBP/USD heading south today
The price of the GBP/USD exchange rate did not change significantly on Wednesday. The most important development during the previous session was a bearish breakout from the prevailing four-day ascending channel.The Pound moving out of this steep pattern demonstrates that the strong bullish momentum which was guiding the rate since last Friday has allayed considerably. In case the 55-hour and 100-period (4H) SMAs at 1.2870 are breached, it is expected that the Pound continues to edge even lower down to the monthly S2, the weekly PP and the 55-period SMA at 1.2750.
In terms of the upside, it is unlikely that the weekly S3 at 1.30 is breached, given that this level is likewise reinforced by the 200-period SMA.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart one can see that the surge has encountered the upper trend line of the dominant descending channel pattern. The patterns upper trend line is strengthened by the weekly R2 and the monthly S1.
Watch the trend line. If it gets passed the rate will first reach for the 1.30 mark and afterwards above the 1.31 level. If, it stands its ground, the decline of the Pound will resume.
Daily chart
The Swiss trader long sentiment remains intact, as 62% of open positions were long during the morning hours.
However, additional long positions are unlikely going to be open. Retail traders of the Swiss Foreign Exchange have set up 64% of all of their pending trade orders to sell. This number has been increasing step by step from 53% throughout the week.
Meanwhile, OANDA traders remain largely bullish, as 63% of open positions are long at the brokerage. In the meantime, traders at SAXO Bank are 61% long on the GBP/USD pair.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility