AUD/USD 4H Chart: Channel Down

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Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
© Dukascopy Bank SA
AUD/USD is presently forming a bearish channel. However, while we are more or less confident in the ability of the upper trend-line to contain rallies, especially considering that at the moment it is reinforced by the monthly PP and 200-period SMA, there are considerably less reasons to believe that the lower trend-line will be able to trigger a notable upward correction. Nevertheless, the base scenario is a short-term recovery from 0.7015 to 0.7170/50, after which a sell-off should ensue, although a close above 0.7170 will imply extension of the rally to the October high at 0.7380. In the meantime, the SWFX market is overbought to a great extent, being that 75% of open positions are long.
© Dukascopy Bank SA
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