© Dukascopy Bank SA
The pattern started on the 5th of October, 2012, when the pair dipped to 4.0614; currently it is trading at 4.1824; gap between the pattern's support resistance narrows by 700 pips in 100 bar period. Trading volume seems to be dome shaped in the length of the pattern. Technical indicators on aggregate point at appreciation of the pair on 1D and 1W horizons suggesting it should continue moving towards pattern's resistance. Long traders could focus on the weekly pivot (R1)/Bollinger band at 4.1999/2038, weekly pivot (R2) at 4.2165 and pattern's resistance/weekly pivot (R3) at 4.2340/82.
Current market sentiment has strongly bearish tendencies as 71% of traders are short on the pair and 87% of all pending orders are to sell the euro versus its Polish counterpart. Short traders could focus on the weekly pivot (PP) at 4.1782, 20-day SMA at 4.1687, pattern's support at 4.1514, 100-day SMA/weekly pivot (S2) at 4.1426/400, Bollinger band/200-day SMA at 4.1335/25 and weekly pivot (S3) at 4.1234.
Main fundamental events which could have significant impact on the pairs development in the near future are Minimum Bid Rate announcement by the ECB on the 4th of April and German ZEW Economic sentiment announcement on 16th of April.
© Dukascopy Bank SA