USD/RUB recovery faces resistance

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA


Since October 26, the USD/RUB has been recovering in a narrow channel up pattern. However, on a larger scale the currency pair remains in a channel down pattern, which captures the pair's moves since April 2021.

Most recently, the surge of the rate encountered the resistance of the 200-4 hour period simple moving average at 72.20. The simple moving average provided resistance and kept the rate down in late September and early October.

In the case that the rate breaks the resistance of the 200-period SMA, it could aim at the upper trend line of the larger scale channel down pattern in the 73.15/73.20 zone. Note that a breaking of the trend line might result in a surge to the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2020 low and high levels at 74.50.

Meanwhile, a bounce off from the SMA would look for support in the combination of the lower trend line of the narrow channel up pattern and the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level at 71.90. A decline below the 71.90 level could look for support in the combination of the 71.00 level and the 50-period SMA.
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