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The pattern started on the 21th of March, 2012, when the pair started depreciating from 111.444 and after testing pattern's support limits on 1st of June at 95.607 and 24th of July at 94.125 it slowed down near 98.528 where the pair is currently trading; pattern's resistance is at 101.632. Technical indicators on aggregate point at appreciation of the pair on 1D outlook. Long traders could focus on the 21st of August high/daily pivot (R2)/weekly pivot (R1) at 99.191/280. If the pair breaches this cluster of resistance levels next targets could be set at weekly pivots at 99.923 (R2) and 100.650 (R3).
Technical indicators on aggregate send a very strong sell signal on 1W time horizon suggesting that the pair should not breach the pattern's support and might evolve in to rectangle or triple top pattern. Short traders could set the first target at 21st of August low/daily pivot (R1) at 98.021/97.986. If these levels are breached, next targets could be set at the weekly pivot (S2)/Fibonacci retracement (38.2% of move since 21st of June) at 97.025/006 and weekly pivot (S3) at 96.308.
Main fundamental events who might influence pairs development would be Italian 10 year bond auction on 30th of August and Mario Draghi speech at Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Economic Symposium on 1st of September.
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