Aussie up for critical move

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
AUD/CHF dug into levels beneath 0.7367, the crisis-low, starting December 2014 and did not return above the zone of interest until July this year. While levels under 0.6548 - this year's ultimate low - could prove unattainable, the pair shows trouble for the bullish market to extend. On a general scale, an immediate downtrend is rather likely, but not below 0.6548, where more prominent momentum is required. An upward crossover of 55 and 100 week SMAs is almost there, but it could remain unexecuted if 0.7628, which corresponds to the senior downtrend, does indeed send the pair packing.

Weekly Chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


The monthly and weekly charts display the rate facing a level of strong significance at 0.7652, established by the Gann angle of connected July 2012 - March 2013 highs, confirmed by the 50% Fibonacci level of the August high 2014 – August high 2015 dip, and strengthened by the Gann squaring period level. Based on the matured wedge, the area could reject a further climb, causing the rate to reinforce the bearish themes.

4-Hour Chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


Looking at the 4-hour chart, we see some bearish signals emerging from the recent crossing of the Andrew's Pitchfork median line from the upside, as well as the break out of the alternative Pitchfork (marked by the dashed line). Assuming a more reasonable slope for the trend-line, we expect the bottom line of the solid Pitchfork to cause trouble for further expression of weakness around 0.7543. Adding the falling wedge to the equation, we will look for it to break at the aforementioned level over the next few days and show a bullish outburst - but for now, the Tenkan sen and Kijun sen crossing confirms a short-term downtrend, with a green cloud strengthening the Pitchfork trend-line. The surge that follows is likely to be cut by 0.7652, the upper trend-line of the dominant wedge, which was again confirmed with an engulfing pattern on top of the month-long soar violating the upper Bollinger Band at 0.7646.

Aggregate Technical Indicators
© Dukascopy Bank SA


SNB Chairman Jordan's speech is set to move markets at 16:15 on Monday, with Australian CPI coming following at 12:30 on Wednesday.

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