EUR/USD is determined to breach 200-day SMA

EUR/USD's volatility surged on Monday, despite lack of fundamental news and in anticipation of the looming Fed interest rate decision. The pair was testing the 50% Fibonacci retracement of an Oct-Nov downtrend at 1.1008 during the Asian session. However, the bulls are mainly ignoring this resistance, in order to focus more on the 200-day SMA at 1.1033. This moving average is guarded by the 100-day SMA from the north with a 26-pip gap. Considering difficulties to consolidate above both of them earlier last week, we are skeptical about the pair's ability to do that in the next 24 hours as well.  

SWFX market remains 55% bearish on the Euro. At the same time, 50 and 100-pip pending orders changed hands yesterday. The former are now 54% long, while the latter are similarly short on EUR.