- Fitch
There is a bunch of important economic releases from the United States this week, including speeches from the FOMC members, Janet Yellen's testimony in New York, FOMC minutes as well as weekly jobless claims and data from the housing market. Each time it pays to listen to FOMC member's speeches, as there is always a possibility of a bombshell that will definitely disturb financial markets. Comments can become a massive catalyst for markets only if they include a hint of increasing paranoia about inflation, otherwise these speeches are just a yawner. With no important releases until Wednesday, EUR/USD is likely to consolidate around 1.37-mark until the FOMC minutes. This time the Chairwoman can shed light on three topics– the participation rate, a rate hike and the excess level of the reserve rate. Yellen has already admitted that participation rate fell to a certain extent in the U.S. as a result of aging population, while also saying not only cyclical factors are weighing on the labour market, but also there are structural problems. Regarding the rate hike, earlier, Yellen pointed out the Fed will have the necessary tools to raise short-term policy rates. As concerns the excess reserve rate, the Chairwoman does not see a problem, but perhaps, this time, she will manage to provide more details. It will be worth mentioning, that during the testimony at Jackson Hole meeting, Yellen claimed that "the best way to build credibility was to lie", so, perhaps, we should better rely more on indicators?
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