Last week's overview, this week's key events

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
Two policy meetings, minutes from the BoJ and FOMC, and important unemployment data from Australia. All these events were not able to cause a significant market turmoil, as elevated market volatility was recorded only in 27% of the time. Nonetheless, XAU/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD posted solid gains, each advancing 2.10%, 1.91% and 1.86%, respectively. 

The U.S. Dollar received a strong bearish bias last week, as the FOMC minutes showed officials are concerned over low inflation rate in the U.S., as they had predicted that a strengthening U.S. economy would boost inflation from 1% towards the healthy 2% target, associated with a robust business activity. However, the harsh winter weather undermined their expectations, as it dampened economic growth in the world's number one economy. It means that the first rate hike can be postponed, hence, investors' interest in the U.S. Dollar deteriorated. In contrast, the Aussie soared, as statistics from the nation's labour market surprised markets to the upside. Earlier, the RBA projected the unemployment rate will move higher soon, as demand for the labour force remain fragile. Investors sent the Aussie to a 4 1/2 month high, as the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 5.8% in March from a revised 6.1%. Moreover, this week, the RBA will publish its minutes on Tuesday, where they can specify their intentions to keep rates on hold and, perhaps, show that the next move will be a rate hike, not another cut, as some economists believed. In this case AUD/USD can easily rocket to its previous high at 0.9465 and continue its appreciation toward 95-mark and a monthly R2 at 0.9556. However, gains can be limited, as technicals on a daily and weekly charts are already suggesting the pair is overbought, while aggregate technical indicators on a monthly chart are sending ‘sell' signals. 

Another South-Pacific currency, the kiwi, can be highly attractive this week, as on Tuesday the Statistics New Zealand will unveil first quarter's inflation, while Chinese GDP a day later will shed light on the real state of the world's second economy. Inflation at 2.4% is raising concerns the People's Bank of China can pull the trigger soon, boosting domestic demand. New Zealand is highly dependent on demand from its largest trading partner, hence kiwi will be highly volatile after the release of two reports. Long trader should focus on a recent high at 0.8746, while the key support is located at the level represented by a weekly pivot at 0.8609.
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Actual Topics

Mon, 14 Apr 2014 07:51:05 GMT

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Fri, 11 Apr 2014 06:45:59 GMT

Let the Aussie rally begin

The Australian Dollar was the biggest mover during the Asian session on Thursday, supported by upbeat unemployment data from Australia, while dovish FOMC minutes dragged the U.S. Dollar lower.

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