China will not overtake U.S. until 2028, while U.S. pending home sales ticked up slightly

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
"Several housing indicators have improved recently and the very modest increase in pending home sales in November is a tentative sign that activity is stabilizing, or perhaps even picking up"  
- Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan in New York 

According to the Centre for Economics and Business Research, the U.S. economy will remain the world's largest until 2028, as China's rise to the world's number one economy will be much slower than initially expected, largely due to relative slowdown of China's economy and strong economic performance of the U.S. China's gross domestic product will increase to $35,513 billion in 2028, compared to $8,939 billion in 2013.

In the meantime, pending sales of U.S. existing homes rose less than expected in November, reinforcing the view higher borrowing costs hold back the recovery in the residential real estate. According to the data of the National Association of Realtors, its Pending Home Sales index inched up 0.2% to 101.7 from downwardly revised reading in October, 1.6% below last November's levels. Nevertheless, it was the first increase in six months, providing a hopeful sign the sector has begun to stabilize. Tight lending standards, higher mortgage rates and price increases caused by a limited supply of homes for sale are discouraging some potential buyers. However, further gains in employment, household wealth and consumer confidence would boost the housing recovery and provide greater momentum for the nation's economy. Economists believe that not only job growth will accelerate in 2014, but there will also be a pick up in better-quality, higher paying jobs. 

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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