With regards to the most traded currency pair, EUR/USD, it has ended the week with practically no change, even despite it has been highly volatile. After the FOMC minutes and Obama's speech the pair hit 1.348; however, later on Friday, recovered back to 1.358– slightly higher than week's opening price. The most remarkable event in Europe was Mario Draghi's comments, which pushed the pair 30 pips higher. Separately, European Central Bank Governing Council member Jens Weidmann claimed there is no need in new LTRO and stressed out the ECB will not deploy them just because a spike in market interest rates. Amid growing speculations of a possible withdrawal of Fed's stimulus, market rates moved higher during the summer, while the ECB has already pledged to constantly monitor them, as a sustained rise could threaten the region's fragile economic recovery. Amid risks to economic recovery, the ECB may cut interest rates further, sending single currency lower.
The main gainer was the Australian Dollar that advanced 1.34% against the major peers over the week. The Aussie hit a three-day high on Friday, after receiving a temporary boost from better-than-expected jobs and political situation in the U.S. Australian unemployment rate fell to 5.6% last month, beating analysts' expectations of 5.8%. However, the decline was led not by the higher number of employed people, but due to a fall in the participation rate, hence it marks a true picture of Oz labour market. Meanwhile, the Aussie remains highly overvalued and it drags on economic growth, hence another rate cut by the RBA is expected, even though analysts and brokers are lowering their bets on whether the easing cycle is over. AUD/USD is facing a strong resistance just 45 pips higher, therefore we can expect a slight retracement back to 0.93 in the foreseeable future.
This week's economic calendar includes only several reports, which can significantly affect markets. Still, the British Pound can be rather volatile as on Wednesday the ONS will unveil labour market statistics, while a day later they will publish a retail sales report. Though the Pound is benefitting from upbeat fundamental data from the U.K., any progress on budget deal will push GBP/USD significantly lower, even below the recent low around 1.59.