The price for gold surged on the news and broke the descending trend line that had pushed the metal down. However, the surge stopped at the 2,333.75/2,340.00 range. This range was reached by the 50-hour simple moving average and at mid-Wednesday it appeared that the metal was declining back to 2,300.00. Economic Calendar Analysis
On Thursday, watch the publication of the US Advance quarterly GDP publication at 12:30 GMT. Note that the United States GDP data is published over the span of a quarter by giving updated data each month. First release has the most impact and is called the Preliminary. It is followed by the Advance GDP release, which is expected on Thursday. Afterwards, the GDP publications end with the Final GDP, and the cycle starts again with a new quarter.
Also on Thursday, watch the US Pending Home Sales data publication at 14:00 GMT. In the recent months, this previously ignored data set has started to impact the US Dollar.
On Friday, one of the top US data releases will occur. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure will reveal more detailed impact of inflation on the US consumer. US monetary policy makers have been observing this index instead of the Consumer Price Index to decide upon their policy.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
A move below 2,300.00 could look for support in early April's support and resistance zones near 2,265.00 and 2,225.00.
On the other hand, a recovery of the metal would have to break above the 50-hour simple moving average. Meanwhile, note the resistance of the 2,320.00, 2,340.00 and 2,360.00 levels.
XAU/USD daily charts review
We previously wrote: "On the daily candle chart, the metal shows to be massively overbought, as it has left far below the current price the daily simple moving averages. It needs to consolidate by trading sideways or declining, before resuming the broader surge."The decline is occurring, as the metal has pierced the support line that connects the February and March low levels. The trend line was expected to keep the metal from declining. A potential target for the decline could be the 2,223.00 level and the ascending 50-day simple moving average.
Daily Candle Chart
Traders remain short
Since Tuesday, 68% of Dukascopy traders were short, as that proportion of open position volume was in short positions.
In the meantime, pending orders in the 1000-pip range around the current price were 100% to sell the metal.