- SWFX market sentiment is 60% bearish
- Trader pending orders are 60% bearish
- Pair opened Thursday's session at 1.1217
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Upcoming Events: US Unemployment Claims
The fundamental results of the Wednesday's trading session were rather neutral. Due to that reason the Euro has returned to its previous path. Namely, it means that the EUR/USD currency exchange rate began to surge, as the pair returned to trade back above the 1.12 mark. The currency pair is most likely going to reach the 1.13 mark, as it is indicated by various clues.
The mood of German investors improved markedly in May, official data showed on Tuesday. The Munich-based Ifo Institute for Economic Research reported that its Business Climate Index climbed to 114.6 points in the reported month, following April's 113.0 and surpassing analysts' expectations for an increase to 113.1. That marked the strongest reading since 1991. May's jump was mainly driven by Emmanuel Macron's victory in the French 2017 Presidential Election, which boosted confidence across the Euro zone. Taking into account the stronger-than-expected Ifo Index and other quite optimistic economic data, the German economy is set to hit a 0.6% growth rate in the second quarter.
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US Unemployment Claims
Thursday's trading session is set to be a quiet one for the US data releases, as there is only one data release scheduled, which is worth mentioning. The US Unemployment Claims are set to be released, as every Thursday. The data will be released to the public at 12:30 GMT. However, it needs to have a pretty large divergence from the forecast to cause a move in the financial markets.
Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD rebounds back above 1.12
On Thursday morning the common European currency was continuing the surge against the US Dollar. The surge began during Wednesday's trading session, when the currency pair remained at a resistance cluster in the expectations of fundamental news from the US Central Bankers. If the pair continues the surge, it is highly likely that after some struggling with weak resistance levels the currency exchange rate will surge to the 1.13 mark. There it will be most likely paused by the weekly R1, which is located at the 1.1306 level.
Daily chart
The hourly chart reveals that the currency exchange rate was bouncing around the cluster of significance near the 1.1190 mark for more than consecutive 24 hours. In addition the chart shows that the currency pair did not have much difficulty in passing the hourly resistance levels. For example, the 55-hour SMA held out no longer than an hour. All in all the hourly chart confirms that the 1.13 mark is most likely going to be reached.Hourly chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Traders optimistic towards the US Dollar
SWFX traders have 60% of open positions short, and that same percentage of all trader set up pending orders is set to sell the pair.
OANDA traders remain largely bearish, as 67.55% of open positions are short on Thursday, compared to 67.86% previously. In addition, SAXO bank clients are likewise bearish, as 65.97% of open positions are short, compared to 65.98% on Wednesday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.11 in late August
© Dukascopy Bank SATraders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between April 25 and today expect, on average, that the currency pair may trade slightly above 1.11 in late August. In general, 59% (+2%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be above 1.10 in the following ninety days, and 45% (+1%) see it above 1.12.