- SWFX market sentiment is 51% bearish
- Trader pending orders are 52% bearish
- Pair opened Friday's session at 1.0644
- Upcoming Events: US Average Hourly Earnings; US Non-Farm Employment Change; US Unemployment Rate; FOMC Member Dudley's Speech
German industrial orders rose in February after plunging in the preceding month amid stronger domestic demand. The Economy Ministry reported on Thursday that booking advanced 3.4% during the reported month, following January's drop of 6.8% but falling behind analysts' expectations for a 3.5% increase. The data followed a private survey that showed that manufacturing activity growth hit its highest level in almost six months in March. Both data releases suggested that the manufacturing sector contributed significantly to GDP growth in the Q1 of 2017. Nevertheless, orders from the Euro zone dropped 8.1%, failing to contribute to growth.
Sophia Krietenbrink from the DIHK suggested that global political risks continued to put significant pressure on international demand for German-manufactured goods. The Economy Minister added that in the two-month comparison for January/February compared to November/December, orders dropped 2.4% amid both weak domestic and international demand. However, it expressed hopes that industrial activity would improve in the upcoming months. On Friday morning, Destatis reported that German industrial production climbed 2.2% in February, unchanged from a downwardly revised reading in January. Meanwhile, analysts anticipated a drop of 0.1%.
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Upcoming events: US Employment
During today's trading session there will be an important data release in the US, which will influence the financial markets. At 12:30 GMT the US employment package will be out. It will be covered by the Dukascopy research team online, and it consists of the US Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate. In addition, market participants have to take into account that FOMC member Dudley is set to give a speech at 16:15 GMT.
Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD near retracement level on Friday
Daily Chart: On Friday morning the common European currency traded against the US Dollar just above the 1.0639 level, where the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level is located at. The currency exchange rate was finding support in the retracement level, which had kept the currency exchange from declining for the whole week. There are two likely scenarios for the pair. The rate might continue to trade in this weeks established range or pass the 23.60% Fibo and reach the support of the 100-day SMA at 1.0624. However, it is most likely that the direction will be revealed by fundamental events.Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Hourly chart: The hourly chart reveals that the currency exchange rate has experienced massive volatility during the last few trading sessions, as it was stuck bouncing between two levels of significance. However, it can be observed that the hourly SMAs have begun pushing the rate lower and another move past the 23.60% Fibo is occurring. If the hourly SMAs continue to move lower, the rate will break free of the retracement levels grip.
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
Markets with mixed views
SWFX traders are neutral bearish on the pair, as 51% of open positions are short on Friday. In addition, 52% of trader set up orders are to sell the Euro.
OANDA traders remain in the bullish territory, as 56.79% of trader open positions are long on Friday, compared to 55.47% previously. However, SAXO bank clients are almost neutral 50.73% of open positions being short now, compared to the 52.22% positions on Thursday.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.08 in July
Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between March 7 and April 7 expect, on average, the currency pair to trade around 1.08 at the start of July. In general, 43% (+3%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be generally above 1.08 in ninety days, and 24% (+1%) see it above 1.12. In the meantime, 10% of those surveyed reckon the pair will be at parity or below. © Dukascopy Bank SA