- Commands to buy the Euro versus the US Dollar in 100-pip range are negative (45% bullish / 55% bearish)
- The closest resistance for this pair is located at 1.0773
- At the same time, the closest support is currently placed at 1.0759
- Upcoming events on April 20: Germany PPI (Mar), Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report
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Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said he was "firmly optimistic" the government would reach an agreement with European creditors by the end of April. Tsipras admitted several points of agreement had been found since negotiation first began, especially on aspects such as tax collection, corruption and plans to distribute the tax burden on those, who have the ability to pay.
Meanwhile, the Standard and Poor's rating agency downgraded Greece's credit rating further into junk status Wednesday, adding the country's financial commitments would be unsustainable without "deep economic reform or further relief." The agency brought Greece's sovereign rating to CCC+ from B-, with a negative outlook "given the risk of further worsening in liquidity for the sovereign, the banks, and the economy."
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Bundesbank to publish monthly report on Monday
As usually, beginning of a new week will remain rather silent in terms of any fundamental data; therefore, no significant volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair is expected from this point of view. In the morning on Monday, only German producer price index for March will be released, after which the Deutsche Bundesbank is going to publish its monthly report where the regulator provides detailed analysis of current market and economic conditions.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD likely to lose value with growing trading range
Judging from EUR/USD's developments that took place since July of the previous year, the pair is clearly trading downwards with a significant negative slope. At the same time, mid-March movements of the Euro have also confirmed a widening trading range of this currency pair, meaning it is currently hovering inside the broadening falling wedge pattern. By the end of April, the common European currency is expected to surge up to the 1.17 mark where 2005 low and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement will most probably push the cross back in the direction of 1-1.05 area. In the meantime, the Euro may hit 1:1 against the US Dollar as soon as by the end of July 2015. However, a presence of dense zone of technical levels may also considerably influence the time-frame for this important event.Daily chart
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EUR/USD continued to undergo a bullish correction on Thursday. The pair has even attempted to surge beyond monthly PP, but eventually closed just above the 2003 low at 1.0760. Still, the short-term outlook focuses on positive development of the Euro. The currency is still likely to try climbing as high as 1.09 (weekly R1). At the same time, in case of failure to do that, market expectations will turn back to bearish and EUR/USD will pay attention to recent lows at 1.0520 the next week.
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
EUR/USD sentiment remains above 50%, pending orders stay negative
On the other hand, pending orders to buy the Euro against the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot are down one percentage point from yesterday and stay at 45% at the moment. It proclaims that in case the EUR/USD rises in value, the pair's potential rebound can be limited by the monthly PP at 1.0811. On the other hand, a downward development of the Euro is assumed to be extended below 1.06.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Community is waiting for the Euro to resume declining this week
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Read More: Community Forecasts
aslamhammad, one of the community members participating in the survey, motivates his bearish outlook towards the common currency by saying that "the ECB plans to keep interest rates low. Therefore, I am expecting to see EUR/USD exchange rate lower on Friday April 17."
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between Mar 17 and Apr 17 expect, on average, to see the currency pair around 1.07 by the end of July. Though the majority of participants, namely 52% of them, believe the exchange rate will drop even below 1.06 in ninety days, with 25% alone seeing it below 1.02. Alongside, 21% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.06 and 1.12 by the end of July of this year.
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