Economic Calendar Analysis
This week, various Federal Reserve speakers are giving speeches about monetary policy. It appears that they could make comments that create sudden moves.
In regards to macroeconomic data releases, on Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes, which is the name for Fed meeting protocol, will be released. The pdf file could provide more insight how the Fed decided to do nothing about the returning inflation
On Thursday, markets will be watching the European, UK and US Markit Flash Services and Manufacturing sector Purchasing Managers Indices. The PMIs are survey results of the mentioned sectors. The survey results could surprise the financial markets by revealing that a certain country is doing better or worse than thought. As a result the respective currency should either loose or gain value against other financial assets.
EUR/USD hourly chart analysis
In the case of the rate declining, the pair could once again look for support in the 100-hour simple moving average that has moved up to 1.0850 and the weekly simple pivot point at 1.0843. Further below, note the 1.0820 level that has acted as support and the ascending 200-hour simple moving average. In addition, an ascending support line is moving from 1.0800 up to 1.0840.On the other hand, a resumption of the Euro's surge against the US Dollar is set to face the 1.0875/1.0885 range, before reaching the 1.0900 mark. Higher above, the weekly R1 simple pivot point might act as resistance at 1.0920.
Hourly Chart
EUR/USD daily chart's review
On the daily candle chart, the rate is above the resistance of the upper trend line of the pattern that captured the move of the last months. Moreover, the 50, 100 and 200-day simple moving averages were broken during the last week's US CPI release.Daily chart
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Dukascopy traders are shorting the surge
On Monday, traders were 59% short% long on the pair. That proportion of all open Swiss Foreign Exchange positions was in bearish positions.
Meanwhile, pending orders in the 100-pip range around the pair were 51% to sell.
After the CPI publication traders were 57% short and orders were 52% to sell.
It appears that traders missed the surge and were shorting in the expectations of a retracement down.