Expert Commentary

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Fri, 24 May 2013 13:21:45 GMT

Jonathan Loynes, Chief European Economist at Capital Economics, on Mark Carney's arrival in the UK

I do not think there would be many reforms overtaken from Canada, as they have not experienced the same kind of problems as the U.K has. In fact, the Canadian economy is being more resilient and stronger.

Mon, 20 May 2013 15:52:07 GMT

Daragh Maher, FX Strategist at HSBC, on the Japanese Yen

One of the main drivers for the recent Yen decline is the on-going easing by the Bank of Japan, and determination of the central bankers and the government to hit 2% inflation target in 2-year time means that the BOJ is now buying a lot of bonds and printing money.

Wed, 15 May 2013 04:46:05 GMT

Geoffrey Yu, Senior Currency Strategist at UBS AG, on GBP/USD and EUR/GBP

Throughout this year I doubt that it will be the case, since the Sterling is not going to strengthen on the back of improvements in the nation's economy alone.

Mon, 13 May 2013 11:36:57 GMT

Paul Robson, Currency Strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland, on EUR/USD

I believe this is not going to have a huge impact on the overall economy, as interest rates were already relatively low.

Fri, 10 May 2013 12:20:43 GMT

Eugen Weinberg, Head of Commodity Research at Commerzbank, on gold and its forecast

I do not think that it should be a concern. Although, it is a technical definition of the bear market, I do not see gold in the bear market as yet.

Fri, 03 May 2013 11:47:03 GMT

James Angel, Professor at Georgetown University, on high-frequency trading

The phrase "High-frequency trading" is a vague catchall term that has been applied to anyone using a fast computer.

Thu, 02 May 2013 13:58:59 GMT

Adam Cole, Global Head of FX Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, on UK's economy and British Pound

To my mind, the United Kingdom is probably in a middle of stagnant activity with a little growth.

Thu, 02 May 2013 11:35:00 GMT

Ross Strachan, Commodities Economist at Capital Economics, on silver

In recent years silver prices have been following gold prices quite closely. During last 5 years silver prices have moved in the same direction as gold, though more sharply.

Wed, 01 May 2013 11:59:03 GMT

Dr. Jens Kramer, Economist at NORD/LB, on ECB rate cut and Eurozone's economy

Actually, we do not think that the European Central Bank will cut the repo rate.

Mon, 29 Apr 2013 12:43:48 GMT

Karim Abadir, Professor at Imperial College London, on Eurozone's economy

Germany is not a burden at all when it comes to a current account surplus. Actually, much of the surplus is coming from outside of the Eurozone, thus this is definitely a beneficial inflow into Europe. Germany's strict approach to monetary policy may be a burden, but their CA surplus is not.

Thu, 25 Apr 2013 13:59:03 GMT

Nic Brown, Head of Commodity Research at Natixis, on gold

We believe that in a very short run a bounce is possible, whereas in the medium risks are still on the downside.

Tue, 23 Apr 2013 12:41:42 GMT

Commerzbank on Cyprus's future in the Eurozone and EUR/USD

We do not consider this outcome to be realistic. The previous bailout package for peripheral countries like Greece, Portugal and Ireland has mainly conveyed that the Eurozone is willing to stay intact. We consider the Eurozone breakup risk to be very minimal as the ECB with its OMT announcement still has its effect on keeping the market calm.

Mon, 22 Apr 2013 13:13:02 GMT

Standard Chartered Bank and JP Morgan on the Australian economy and Aussie

The RBA expects the Australian economy to go through a period of transition: away from a very intensive period of investment in the mining sector towards a new era.

Thu, 18 Apr 2013 07:31:31 GMT

Miswin Mahesh, Commodity Analyst at Barclays, on oil prices

I think the timeline that we are looking at is certainly showing an increase. However, over the last 3 years, crude has not really risen.

Thu, 18 Apr 2013 07:18:37 GMT

Kiran Kowshik, Currency Strategist at BNP Paribas, on the U.S. economy and outlook for the Dollar

As Ben S. Bernanke mentioned, it is not only the headline employment, which is important, but it is also quality of improvement in employment.

Mon, 08 Apr 2013 10:55:06 GMT

Jeon-Hwan Bae, Professor at Chonnam National University, on South Korea's economy

However, South Korea will not result in the everlasting recession like Japan.

Wed, 03 Apr 2013 14:30:05 GMT

Christian Lips, Economist at NORD/LB, on Eurozone economy, ECB interest rate decision and Euro

We expect the Eurozone's economy to worsen, but only to a limited extent.

Tue, 02 Apr 2013 14:22:12 GMT

Anders Eklof, FX Strategist at Swedbank, on Swedish Krona and forecasts for USD/SEK and EUR/SEK

We do not believe that the Swedish Krona is ever going to have a status of a safe haven currency.

Wed, 27 Mar 2013 17:18:09 GMT

Kumiko Gervaise, FX Market Analyst at Gaitame.com Research Institute, on USD/JPY and EUR/JPY

One of the key events is the BOJ monetary policy meeting that will take place from 3 to 4 April. This is the first meeting for the new BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda.

Wed, 20 Mar 2013 14:47:46 GMT

Metzler Asset Management and Commerzbank on Cyprus bailout and European currencies

I think it has to do with the substantial amount of foreign deposits, which are mainly held by Russians and by other perhaps dubious sources. As the German parliamentary elections are looming in September this year, it would be a hard-sell to bailout Russian oligarchs using German taxpayers' money. To my mind, this is the key reason why the discussion

Wed, 20 Mar 2013 06:10:26 GMT

Marc Chandler from Brown Brothers Harriman on USD/CAD, Canada's economy and monetary policy

I do not quite see it that way, I think Canada is experiencing the tough times. However, to my mind what helped Canada was of course a positive terms of trade shock: we had price of commodities rising faster than price of manufactured goods leading to troublesome excesses in Canada. In fact, most recently the Bank of Canada has pushed

Tue, 19 Mar 2013 10:27:28 GMT

FX Strategists from Commerzbank and BNP Paribas on GBP/USD, EUR/GBP and future BOE actions

We expect that in the near future the central bank officials could increase the asset purchase programme. However, it is doubtful whether this will have any material impact.

Thu, 14 Mar 2013 09:38:12 GMT

Robert Ayres, Emeritus Professor at INSEAD, on new era of renewables and energy-backed securities

I think we are on the threshold of a new era, with renewables being a central part of it due to several reasons. First of all, the climate change problem is actually much worse than the last IPCC report suggested a few years ago. What we see now is that the size of the glacial cover is decreasing, the ice

Tue, 12 Mar 2013 14:24:09 GMT

Bill Diviney, FX Strategist at Barclays Bank, on USD/JPY and future BOJ monetary policy actions

We forecast USD/JPY to reach 100 in one year. I think in the near term one of the most important events would be the first BOJ policy meeting under Kuroda, which takes place on 3-4 April. Our economists are looking for an extension of the maturity of JGBs purchased under the Asset Purchase Program. At the moment the Bank of

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