- SWFX traders are 53% bullish
- 53% of pending orders in 500-pip range are set to SELL the gold
- Pair approaches weekly S1 at 1,269.58
- Upcoming Events: US Core Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, Crude Oil Inventories
The yellow metal is trading against the buck in recently formed falling wedge formation. Whether the pair makes a breakout today will significantly depend on release of the US Core Durable Goods Orders and market reaction on it. But, in theory, the breakout should happen in the northern direction.
The National Association of Realtors reported on Friday that the US existing home sales gained 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted yearly rate of 5.39M in September. The increase was sustained by dissipation of the effects of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, though an enduring dearth of available properties kept weighing on overall activity. Moreover, weak affordability is likely to keep prices high confusing considerable buyers' interest throughout the US.
Core Durable Goods Orders
The main event of the day, the US Core Durable Goods Orders data release, is scheduled at 12:30 GMT. The change in number of purchasing orders is traditionally expected to cause some volatility in the markets. The event will be covered by the Dukascopy Research Team.
XAU/USD trades in falling wedge
In result of the previous trading session, the exchange rate has finally made a breakout from the medium-term ascending channel. The plunge was caused by a rebound from the upper-trend line of the junior descending channel that was additionally backed up by the 100-hour SMA near 1,281.00. In the meantime, narrowing fluctuations of the rate indicate that the above channel is gradually transforming into the falling wedge formation. If this is the case, then a combined support formed by the lower line of the pattern in conjunction with the weekly S1 at 1,269.58 is expected to neutralize the fall after release of information on the US purchase orders. There are similar expectations for the opposite direction, which should be reliably secured by the 55- and 100-hour SMAs that are slipping along the resistance line of the wedge.
Hourly Chart
On daily chart the pair faces the last barrier on its way towards the bottom boundary of a dominant ascending channel and the 200-hour SMA. This barrier is set up by the weekly S1 located at 1,269.58. Although there are all chances to break through it, there is a need to take into account couple of weeks ago the pair has already failed once to achieve this goal. In addition to that, it is moving in a minor falling wedge formation. Plus the market sentiment remains 53% bullish.Daily Chart
Markets sentiment remain bullish
Traders of Dukascopy are largely bullish on valuation of the gold, as 53% of open positions are long. Accordingly, 53% of pending commands are to buy the commodity.
OANDA traders are bullish, as 66% (+0%) of open positions are long, compared to previous trading day. In the meantime, SAXO bank traders are less bullish, as 58% (-1%) of open positions are long.