- SWFX traders are 50% bullish
- 61% of pending orders in 500-pip range are set to BUY the gold
- Pair jumps above 55-hour SMA and 1,275.00 mark
- Upcoming Events: US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Fed Yellen speech
Rising concerns over the Janet Yellen's resignation from the Fed Chair post enabled gold traders to restore some positions against the buck and even break from dominant descending channel. Until beginning of the US macroeconomic releases, the rate is expected to stay between the 55- and 100-hour SMAs. However, the further direction of the rate will heavily depend on result of the announced data and, most importantly, on the subsequent Yellen's speech.
The ISM stated that its index for the US manufacturing activity surged to 60.8 points in September, reaching the highest level in more than 10 years. Solid advances in ISM-reported figures to a certain extent reflected affects from Hurricanes. The report also showed an increase in its exports measure as producers benefited from the Dollar's weakness, which made US supplies more attractive to overseas buyers.
Employment data
Today will be a quite significant trading day for several reasons. First, at 12:15 GMT the Automatic Data Processing Inc. will publish an update on the US employment change. Then at 14:00 GMT the Institute for Supply Management will reveal information about the US non-manufacturing activity. Finally, at 19:15 GMT Janet Yellen will deliver opening remarks at a community banking conference.
XAU/USD surges on the eve of Yellen speech
Because of the speech that is expected to be delivered by the Fed Chair Janet Yellen at a banking conference in St. Louis, the gold traders not only managed to pull the pair from the weekly S1 lying at the 1,266.63 level but also to push it from a junior descending channel. At the moment, the only barrier that it faces on its way is the 100-hour SMA, which is located slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Whether the pair will succeed to break through this resistance as well will heavily depend on release on information on the US employment data and of course the subsequent Yellen's speech. Nevertheless, none of these events are likely to change to the general picture, according to which the rate is expected to reach the lower support line of a dominant ascending channel and only then make a rebound.
Hourly Chart
After crossing the 100-day SMA, nothing except for the weekly S1 at 1,266.63 was stopping the rate from slipping further to the bottom. Nevertheless, it made a rebound and now is fluctuating between the above weekly S1 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. However, this recovery is likely to have a limited effect, as the pair is still expected to reach the bottom edge of a dominant ascending channel.Daily Chart
Markets sentiment becomes neutral
Traders of Dukascopy remain neutrally bullish on valuation of the gold, as 50% of open positions are long. In the meantime, 50% of pending commands are to sell the commodity.
OANDA Gold traders are bullish, as 65% (+1%) of open positions are long, compared to previous trading session. In the meantime, SAXO bank traders are similarly bullish, as 65% (+2%) of open positions are also long.