- SWFX traders are 52% bearish
- 62% of pending orders in 500-pip range are set to SELL the gold
- Pair crosses 100-day SMA
- Upcoming Events: Fed Governor Powell Speaks
A release of better than expected information about the US manufacturing activity allowed the pair to successfully cross the 100-day SMA. Hence, the only notable barrier that separates the exchange rate from the bottom trend-line of a long-term ascending channel is the weekly S1 at 1,266.63, which might be reached already today.
The ISM stated that its index for the US manufacturing activity surged to 60.8 points in September, reaching the highest level in more than 10 years. Solid advances in ISM-reported figures to a certain extent reflected affects from Hurricanes. The report also showed an increase in its exports measure as producers benefited from the Dollar's weakness, which made US supplies more attractive to overseas buyers.
FOMC Member Powell speaks
Today is not expected to bring any notable macroeconomic news for the yellow metal traders. In fact, the only notable event planned for today is a discussion of a regulatory reform organized by the Reuters and George Washington University, in which the Fed Governor Powell is expected to share his vision and afterwards answer on some questions.
XAU/USD ready to test weekly S1 at 1,266.63
In accordance with expectations, for couple of hours the fall of the exchange rate was stopped by the 100-day SMA. However, a release of better than expected information on the US manufacturing activity ultimately led to appreciation of the buck against all major currencies including the gold. From technical perspective, the pair is about to reach to weekly S1 at 1,266.63, which represents the only notable support level that separates the pair from the bottom edge of a dominant ascending channel. Given that informational background remains in favour of the buck and there are scheduled no macroeconomic data releases today, the pair is expected to successfully bypass this barrier and continue to move to the south. However, there is a need to take into account that the average market sentiment became 59% bullish.
Hourly Chart
In result of the yesterday's trading session the pair expectedly broke through the 100-day SMA. The next and ultimate target for the rate is going to be a combined support level set up by the weekly S2, the monthly S1, the 200-day SMA and the bottom trend-line of a dominant ascending channel. The only obstacle that prevents the pair from reaching this goal is the weekly S1 at 1,266.63. However, it is unlikely that this pivot point is going to be strong enough to force the rate to make a turnaround.Daily Chart
Markets sentiment remains bearish
Traders of Dukascopy remain neutrally bearish on the price of gold, as 52% of open positions are short. In the meantime, 51% of pending commands are to sell the commodity.
OANDA Gold traders are bullish, as 64% (+2%) of open positions are long, compared to previous trading session. In the meantime, SAXO bank traders are similarly bullish, as 63% (-1%) of open positions are also long.