- SWFX traders are 58.30% bearish
- 55% of pending orders in 1000-pip range are set to SELL
- Pair moves along 100-hour SMA
- Upcoming Events: US Unemployment Claims, Core PCE Price Index, Personal Spending, Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales
Most of the previous trading day the yellow metal spent in a descending triangle pattern. Then, in the early Thursday morning it made a breakout to the bottom, which unfortunately for the buck lasted only until the 100-hour SMA. Most probably, today the Dollar will continue to try to drag the pair closer to the 200-hour SMA.
The Commerce Department reported that the US economy expanded at a faster-than-expected yearly pace of 3.0% in the Q2. The country's GDP growth marked the strongest reading in more than two years, nearing Donald Trump's target. A rise was led by higher consumer spending and business investment, which could be further translated into a stronger path in the Q3 to dampen possible effects of Hurricane Harvey.
Many but insignifficant data releases
On Thursday, an economic calendar contains the whole package of the US macroeconomic data releases. Unfortunately, none of them represents an opportunity for swing trade. Because of this, market players are advised to take a look at its northern neighbour, which will publish information on monthly GDP at 12:30 GMT. You can follow a coverage of this news event by the Dukascopy Research Team.
XAU/USD slips to 1,303.75
Yesterday the American Dollar continued to strengthen against the yellow metal and even managed to form a little descending triangle, whose lower support line matched with the upper boundary of a former long-term ascending channel. In the early Thursday morning the bullion lost another 0.33% and slipped below the 100-hour SMA.
On the one hand, a forming downtrend suggests that the plunge can continue at least until the 200-hour SMA near 1,295.80. On the other hand, over the last three days appreciation of the buck was mainly driven by various fundamental events. In contrast, today there will be no significant data releases that could give the Dollar a necessary impulse for the further surge.
Hourly Chart
Developments on a daily chart more and more reminds formation of a rising wedge. However, in order to continue to confirm this assumption the pair has to break through the bottom boundary of a junior ascending channel, which might happen already in the middle of next week. In contrast, if a rebound occurs, that could mean that the pair is guided by the large ascending channel.
Daily Chart
Markets sentiment remains bearish
Traders of Dukascopy are clearly bearish, as 58% of open positions are short. Expectedly, the same percentage of pending commands is to buy the gold. Moreover, 42.50% of pending orders are set to sell the buck.
OANDA Gold traders are neutral, as open positions are 51% bullish. In the meantime, SAXO bank traders also remain neutral, as 50.50% of open positions are short.