- SWFX traders are 55% bearish
- 58.66% of pending commands are to buy the bullion
- The metal's price started the day's trading at 1,290.88
- Upcoming Events: US Unemployment Claims; US Existing Home Sales, US Mortgage Delinquencies
On Thursday morning the bullion continued to trade below the first monthly resistance, which is located at the 1,292.91 level. However, it can be noticed even on the daily chart that the commodity price has had higher and higher low levels during the recent trading sessions.
The Commerce Department revealed that new home sales in the US fell 9.4% to a seasonally adjusted amount of 571K units in July, which was the strongest decline since December 2016. Weak figures raised concerns over the future recovery and healthy growth of the country's property market. Data would be closely watched to evaluate whether enhanced supply conditions would help reinforce sales conditions in the next couple of months.
Minor US data sets
On Thursday, as it is accustomed, various minor US data sets will be published. They might make an impact on the US Dollar, if they have a large divergence from the average market forecasts. At 12:30 GMT Unemployment Claims will be out, and they are considered the ones with the largest possible impact.
Later on, at 14:00 GMT, the US Existing Home Sales and Mortgage Delinquencies data sets will be released. However, these are considered as minor impact data sets. Due to that reason they are unlikely to cause an impact.
XAU/USD heads towards 1,292.91
The way the bullion moved yesterday confirmed that a theory that a support area formed by a combination of the 200-hour SMA and the weekly PP near 1,284.70 was a stronger barrier than the 55- and 100-hour SMAs. As a result, the pair broke to the top and has practically reached the monthly R1 at 1,292.91.
ost probably, today the yellow metal is going to repeat this attempt. Such assumption is supported by an aggregate of technical indicators, which sends a strong buy signal. However, even if the gold will lose some value while waiting for beginning of the Jackson Hole Symposium, the drop is unlikely to go below the above combined support level.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart one can observe that the commodity price might continue trading below the monthly R1 until it reaches the lower trend line of the dominant ascending channel pattern.If the ascending channel pattern's lower trend line holds ground by providing support, the metal will be squeezed into a short term ascending triangle pattern. The channel's support would become the triangle's support. Meanwhile, the monthly R1 would become the resistance of the triangle.
Daily Chart
Markets inclined to the bullish side
Traders of Dukascopy are clearly bearish, as 55% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, 59.15% of trader set up pending commands are to buy the metal.
OANDA Gold traders are almost neutral, as open positions are 54.22% short. In addition, SAXO bank traders also remain close to being neutral, as 51.37% of open positions are short.