- SWFX traders are 52% bullish
- 61% of pending commands are to buy the bullion
- The metal's price started the day's trading at 1,225.56
- Upcoming Events: US Average Hourly Earnings; US Non-Farm Employment Change; US Unemployment Rate; US Fed Monetary Policy Report
On Friday morning the yellow metal remained near previous trading levels. Moreover, it could be seen that this almost flat trend might continue. The bullion fully confirmed the almost horizontal channel pattern by rebounding against a support level on Friday morning. Due to that reason it is expected that the trading will continue in the range between the 1,220 and 1,230 marks.
New orders for US-made goods declined more than estimated for the second consecutive month in May, a worrisome sign for the manufacturing industry. The US Commerce Department reported on Wednesday that the country's factory orders dropped 0.8% month-over-month in May, following a downwardly revised 0.3% fall registered in April. Meanwhile, analysts anticipated new orders to show a smaller decline of 0.5%. On a yearly basis, factory orders were up 4.8%, suggesting that US manufacturing activity continued to expand at a moderate pace.
US Employment and Fed
On Friday market participants, which trade pairs that involve the US Dollar, have to be vigilant at two times. At 12:30 GMT a package of US employment data will be released. It will consist of the US Average Hourly Earnings, US Non-Farm Employment Change and US Unemployment Rate. The data release will be covered by the Dukascopy Research team on the live webinar platform. The data release usually affects the strength of the US Dollar by causing short term volatility. However, there is something larger set to occur during the day. At 15:00 GMT the Fed Monetary Policy Report will be released. It might change the fundamental perspective on the US Dollar.
XAU/USD: short term pattern is adjusted
Due to a rebound that occurred on Friday morning, the borders of the previously discovered ascending channel pattern on the hourly chart of the yellow metal can be adjusted. It can be observed that the metal's price might after all reach above the 1,230 mark. However, on its way the bullion is set to face the resistance put up by the 55 and 100-hour SMAs, which are located just below and above the 1,225 mark. By examining the course of the SMAs, it can be seen that both of them will meet with the commodity price at the 1,225 mark. If their combined resistance is passed, then the 1,230 level becomes a target. Meanwhile, if the SMAs force the rate lower, a far down to the 1,220 level would be most likely, as until next week the lower trend line of the ascending channel is not reaching above that level.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart there is additional information, in regards to the support provided to the yellow metal. The lower Bollinger band of the daily timeframe is located at the 1,217 mark. In addition, the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level is at the 1,219.36 level. Meanwhile, by adding additional pivot points, one can observe that the weekly second support level is located at the 1,223.67 mark. The weekly pivot point on Thursday finally revealed that it has some strength in it, as the metal shortly found support in the level of significance. However, on Friday it was once again ignored.Daily Chart
SWFX market is almost neutral
Traders of Dukascopy are neutral bullish, as 52% of open positions are long on Friday, which is the same proportion as on Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, 61% of trader set up orders are to buy the commodity.
OANDA Gold traders have increased their bullish outlook, as open positions are 75.47% long on Friday, compared to 73.72% on Thursday. In the meantime, SAXO bank sentiment is 68.53% bullish.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Market participants foresee the price of gold being at 1,300 in three months
Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold during the last month expect, on average, to see the metal around 1,300 in October. Generally, 61% (+4%) of participants believe the price will be above 1,300 in ninety days. Meanwhile, most people see the bullion in the 1,350-1400 range, as 27% see the metal in that range.