- SWFX traders are neutral in regards to the metal
- 57% of pending commands are to buy the bullion
- The metal's price opened the day's trading at 1,245.33
- Upcoming Events: US Core PCE Price Index; US Personal Spending; US Chicago PMI; US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
The breakout of the triangle pattern has occurred. However, not in the expected direction. Instead of surging the yellow metal has retreated and touched the 1,240 mark. It is expected that the metal's price will continue to decline, as low as the 1,235 level.
Pending home sales in the United States dropped for the third consecutive month in May, official figures revealed on Wednesday. The National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales fell 0.8% last month, following April's downwardly revised drop of 1.7% and falling behind market analysts' expectations for an increase of 0.9%. According to Wednesday's data, supply shortages mainly drove the fall. The supply of homes available for sale dropped more than 8% year-over-year in May.
Various minor releases
It can be observed on the economic calendar that on the last workday of the month various data sets will be dumped at various times. The US data sets will begin pouring in in the second half of the day. At 12:30 GMT the US Core PCE Price Index and Personal Spending data will be out. Afterwards, at 13:45 GMT the Chicago PMI will be released. Last but not least the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment will be published. It is highly unlikely that these data sets will cause fluctuations in the markets. However, in the cases of large discrepancies with the forecasts they have shown the strength to cause volatility.
XAU/USD breaks out of triangle
Although it was possible that the metal's price will break out of the ascending triangle pattern to the upside, as it should have been in accordance with this pattern's theoretical framework that did not occur. Instead the bullion sharply dropped and reached the 1,240 mark, which acted as a support. Most likely the 1,240 level was set as a stop loss by short sellers, as the metal managed to quickly reach above the 1,245 mark in the next few hours. In regards to the future outlook of the commodity price, it has to be noted that the metal faces the resistance of all of the simple moving averages, which are used by Dukascopy, at the 1,249 mark. Most likely the combined resistance will force gold into a retreat.
Hourly Chart
In regards to the daily chart it has to be noted that there are SMAs located close by to the bullion's price. First of all the 100-day SMA is located at the 1,250.55 level. Secondly, the 20 and 55-day SMAs have been gradually retreating, and both were located, respectively, at 1,259.99 and 1,258.15 levels. In regard to the support provided by daily levels of significance, the 200-day SMA and the lower Bollinger band are located, respectively, at 1,236.84 and 1,229.76 levels.Daily Chart
SWFX market is neutral
Traders of Dukascopy have become neutral in regard to the yellow metal, as long and short open positions proportion is equal. However, 57% of trader set up orders are to buy the metal.
OANDA Gold traders have increased their bullish outlook, as open positions are 68.07% long on Friday, compared to 66.79% on Thursday. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO have done the opposite, as 61.20% of open positions are long. Previously 62.23% of the bank's traders were long.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Market participants foresee the price of gold being above 1,300 in three months
Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold during the last month expect, on average, to see the metal around 1,300 by the end of September. Generally, 41% (+2%) of participants believe the price will be above 1,350 in ninety days. Meanwhile, most people see the bullion in the 1,350-1400 range, as 24% (+1%) see the metal in that range.