As expected, gold prices continued to fall and have reached a new low level. By the middle of Monday's trading session the commodity price had almost reached the 1,285.00 level.
On Monday, Dukascopy Analytics charts had no technical support as low as the 1,282.50 level. That was used as the target for the metal's decline.
This week has notable data releases that will both cause significant moves in various currency pairs and be covered by Dukascopy Analytics.
During Monday's trading session this week's Economic Calendar Overview video will be published. In that you can take a look at the scheduled data releases and ask questions in the comments.
Data releases will start on Tuesday. On that day the UK Average Earnings Index will be published at 08:30 GMT.
On Wednesday, the UK Consumer Price Index will be released at 08:30 GMT. Afterwards, at 12:30 the Canadian CPI and Trade Balance will be released. This is expected to cause the biggest impact during this week.
The data flow will end on Thursday. The European Manufacturing PMIs will be released at 07:15 GMT and 07:30 GMT. Dukascopy Analytics will cover the 07:30 GMT, as at that time the German PMI will be published. The German data causes the biggest reaction on EUR pairs.
An hour later, at 08:30 GMT, the UK Retail Sales will be published.
Last but not least, the Canadian and US Retail Sales will be published at 12:30 GMT. Both data sets combined could cause a move on the USD/CAD of up to 30 pips.
Meanwhile, check out previous data release covers and economic calendar analysis on the Dukascopy Webinars YouTube channel.
XAU/USD short term forecast
On Friday, the price for gold continued to diminish, surpassing the psychological level at 1,290.00.
Given that the XAU/USD exchange rate is pressured by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs, it is likely, that some bearish momentum continues to prevail in the market. A possible downside target is the lower boundary of the descending triangle pattern at 1,282.56.
It is the unlikely case, that bulls would prevail in the market in the short run, and the price for gold could jumped higher than 1,295.00 level due to the resistance of 55– and 200-hour moving averages.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart the yellow metal had pierced the support of the 100-day simple moving at 1,287.47, which was slowing down the decline during Monday's trading session.Meanwhile, below the mentioned SMA there were no additional support levels on the daily candle chart as low as the 1,274.13 level.
Daily Chart
Traders continue to short the metal
Traders continue to short gold. On the Swiss Foreign Exchange 61% of the total open position volume was in short positions.
Meanwhile, the trader set up pending orders in a 1000 base point range around the metal's current price reveal additional information.
Namely, trader pending orders in that range were set to buy in 71% of cases. The orders signal that traders expect a retracement back up after the recent decline.