- SWFX market sentiment is 75% bullish
- Pending orders in the 1000-pip range are set to buy in 51% of cases
- US macroeconomic releases have been moved to Thursday
The target of 1,240.00 has been reached. The 1,240.00 mark was speculated to be reached one way or another for quite some time.
Latest Fundamental Event
The Energy Information Administration released the US Crude Inventories data that came out lower-than-expected of 3.6M, compare to forecasted 0.6M.
Below are some key notes from the weekly report published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
- "U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.6 million barrels per day during the week ending November 23, 2018. "
- "Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 21.1 million barrels per day, up by 5.6% from the same period last year. "
Bush Senior has died and caused a change in schedules
On Tuesday, traders will concentrate on the UK Construction PMI at 09:30 GMT. The data release is expected to cause a minor reaction on the GBP/USD pairs.On Wednesday, the ECB President Draghi might impact the EUR/USD during his speech at 08:30 GMT.
Afterwards, note the UK Services PMI release at 09:30 GMT. This event will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics
That will not be all on Wednesday. At 15:00 GMT the Bank of Canada will make interest rate announcement. This event has caused the largest fluctuations in the forex markets during 2018. This will be the top event for the month for macroeconomic event traders.
Meanwhile, note that there are changes in the calendar due to the funeral of George Bush senior. Namely, Wednesday's events in the US have been moved to Thursday.
At 13:15 GMT on Thursday the ADP Non-Farm Employment change will be published and covered by Dukascopy Analytics on the bank's webinar platform and YouTube channel.
Moreover, the weekly Crude Oil Inventories will be published at 16:00 GMT. This data release causes bounced in oil prices from half a dollar up to ninety cents.
The day will end with the head of the Federal Reserve testifying before the US Congress at 11:45 GMT.
Last but not least will be the Friday's monthly US and Canadian employment data release at 13:30 GMT. This event will also be covered by Dukascopy Analytics.
XAU/USD short term forecast
During Monday's trading session, the yellow metal kept surging towards the monthly R1 at 1,241.40 to end the trading session at the 1,230.70 mark. On Tuesday morning, the yellow metal was trading at the 1,237.47 mark.
In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the yellow metal will be retraced by the monthly R1 at 1,241.40 to push the gold to trade sideways during the trading session on Tuesday.
However, the gold could depreciate towards the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level at the 1,225.59 due to a lack of any support level near the currency exchange pair.
Hourly Chart
From the daily chart the surge was expected for quite some time. Although, that is not the most important thing to note on the chart.Look at the added medium term ascending pattern. It could guide the metal up to the 1,260 levels once the resistance levels just above the 1,240.00 mark are broken.
Daily Chart
More traders go long on gold
72% of traders were long since Thursday. By the middle of Tuesday's trading session 75% of traders were long on gold.
It indicates that the short term traders had joined the long term holders of gold.
On Monday, the pending buy orders were gone. 53% of trader set up pending orders in the 1000-point range were set to sell. On Tuesday, 55% were set to buy the metal.