- SWFX market sentiment is 58% bearish
- 50% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to SELL
- 55% of traders are bullish on the Dollar
- Upcoming Events: US Core Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, Crude Oil Inventories
After failing to break above the 100-hour SMA near 1.1780, the pair slipped back to the 55-hour SMA at the 1.1757 level. Until the American data release the pair is likely to stay near that level. In case of worse than expected data the surge of the rate is expected to be neutralized by the 200-hour SMA and the weekly PP. In the opposite case, the downfall should be stopped (at least temporarily) by the bottom boundary of medium-term ascending channel.
The EUR/USD currency pair revealed a modest reaction on the US economic reports showing some positive changes in the US existing home sales. The Euro lost against the US Dollar just 4 base points to continue slipping further into the 1.1770 area.
The National Association of Realtors reported on Friday that the US existing home sales gained 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted yearly rate of 5.39M in September. The increase was sustained by dissipation of the effects of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, though an enduring dearth of available properties kept weighing on overall activity. Moreover, weak affordability is likely to keep prices high confusing considerable buyers' interest throughout the US.
US Purchase Orders
Despite various data releases the key event of the day should be the US Core Durable Goods Orders, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The Dukascopy research team is planning on covering the data release.
EUR/USD fails to climb above 100-hour SMA
Previous trading session was marked by attempt to elevate the pair above the 1.1780 level amid concerns over President Trump's tax reform. However, the surge was successfully neutralized by the 100-hour SMA that was additionally backed up by the weekly PP and the 200-hour SMA. As a result, the pair slipped back to the 55-hour SMA. Until release of data on the US Core Durable Goods Orders the pair is likely to fluctuate near the 1.1760 mark. Depending on result, the exchange rate might either jump and clash with the above combined resistance or fall and hit the bottom trend-line of junior ascending channel. Even if this pattern does not sustain, a deep plunge will be still unlikely as an area between 1.1725 and 1.1722 represents notable support level.
Hourly Chart
Previous trading session one more time signified inability of the rate to sneak below the 1.1740 mark. However, yesterday this rebound partially matched with the lower trend-line of a junior ascending channel. If the pair continues to surge to the top, that will be a sign of formation of large symmetrical triangle pattern, which most probably will dissolute in the end of October / beginning of November.
Daily Chart
Traders remain bearish
In result of the previous trading session the bearish market sentiment still slightly decreased, as 58% of open positions are short now. In the meantime, the outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is the following: the Euro is 63% bearish and the Dollar is 55% bullish.
Traders of OANDA remain bearish, as 61% (+2%) of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO are also bearish on this currency pair with 60% (+1%) of open short positions.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility