- SWFX market sentiment is 58% bearish
- 51% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to SELL
- 55% of traders are bullish on the Dollar
- Upcoming Events: US Unemployment Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
Because of release of weak US housing data the Dollar failed to drag the Euro even below the weekly S1 at 1.1735. In the first half of the day the pair is likely to climb to top. However, then a number of technical barriers, such as the upper trend-line of a descending channel or the 55-day most probably will force the pair to make a turn-around.
The EUR/USD continued gradual increase to get through the 1.1800 level in the wake of the dim US housing market data. Following the release, the Euro gained against its American rival 11 base points or 0.10% to the 1.1769 mark.
The Commerce Department revealed that building permits fell to 1.13M in the month of September. Meanwhile, homebuilding in the US dropped to the weakest level in a year in reported period, as Hurricanes Irma and Harvey caused the disruption of single-family homes construction in the South, which could drag the country's GDP growth in the September quarter.
No notable events planned for today
At 12:30 GMT traders could take a look at the weekly update on number of unemployment claims in the United States as well as pay attention to release of the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. However, none of them usually arouse any special interest in the markets. For this reason, it would be better to take a look at the Pound movement during release of information about the British Retail Sales.
EUR/USD fails to slip below weekly S1
Initially the currency rate was expected to break through the weekly S1 and try to reach the 100% Fibonacci retracement level. However, a release of worse than expected American housing data gave the opposite impulse, which returned the pair back to the weekly PP at 1.1807. On the one hand, the fact that the pair two times in a row failed to slip below the 1.1735 mark and is located now above the 100- and 200-hour SMAs suggests that it might continue to climb to the top. On the other hand, the average market sentiment remains 62%. Moreover, an area near 1.1816 represents a notable resistance, which the pair might struggle to cross. Plus, the further path to the north might be also obstructed by the boundary of a descending channel and the 55-day SMA near 1.184.
Hourly Chart
Previous trading session signified another failed attempt of the pair to slip below the weekly S1 located at the 1.1735 level. It seems that this rebound partially matched with formation of a new minor ascending channel. If this assumption is true, then the pair should continue to climb to the top until the clash with upper resistance line of a dominant descending channel. However, there is also a chance that the rate will make a premature turnaround from the 55-day SMA.
Daily Chart
Traders remain bearish
In result of the previous trading session the bearish market sentiment slightly increased, as 58% of open positions are short now.
In the meantime, the outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is the following: the Euro is 61% bearish and the Dollar is 55% bullish.
Traders of OANDA remain bearish, as 61% (-3%) of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO are also bearish on this currency pair with 59% (+1%) of open short positions.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility