- SWFX market sentiment is 55% bearish
- 57% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to BUY
- 52% of traders are bullish on the Dollar
- Upcoming Events: ECOFIN Meetings, FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
Due to release of better than expected German data as well as hawkish comments from the ECB official, the Euro continued to recover against the Dollar. Although many technical indicators are located below the current market price, the news background might substantially affect the further direction of the pair.
The Euro fell slightly against the US Dollar, as the job market reports showed mixed readings on Friday. The EUR/USD currency pair edged lower to the 1.1681 mark, losing 19 base points or 0.16%, though the strong bullish sentiment managed to keep the exchange rate near the 1.1730 level.
The Labour Department showed that the US job market faced unexpected decrease in jobs, as the economy lost 33K positions in September, reflecting the impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. However, the unemployment rate declined to a new low of 4.2% in the same period. Following the report, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise rates in December were still high.
ECOFIN Meeting in Brussels
The only event that is likely to cause some volatility in the markets is a meeting of the EU Finance Ministers in Brussels where they are expected to discuss the euro support mechanisms and government finances. Therefore, traders are advised to follow closely the press conference that will take after shortly after the meeting.
EUR/USD returns to 1.1780
Although many technical indicators pointed out on recovery of the Dollar, the pair eventually made a breakthrough in the opposite direction. The surge was mainly based on better than expected German Industrial Production data and hawkish comments from the ECB official. As a result, the pair returned to the 1.1780 level, from which it started to rapidly fall last Thursday. From technical perspective, now the rate is located above both moving averages and retracement level, which means that the surge could continue towards the weekly R1 at 1.1810. On the other hand, there is couple of fundamental factors that should be beard in mind, as they might notable affect valuation of the Euro. This list includes not only the EU Finance Ministers meeting in Brussels but also possible Catalonia's declaration of independence.
Hourly Chart
In result of the previous trading session, it became clear that the monthly fall of the rate stopped, as soon as the pair made a rebound from the 100% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1715. Accordingly, there is chance that in the upcoming weeks bulls could elevate the rate towards the 1.19 mark.
Daily Chart
Traders become neutral
In result of the previous trading session the bearish market sentiment slightly increased, as 55% of open positions are short now. In the meantime, the outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is the following: the Euro is 58% bearish and the Dollar is 52% bullish.
Traders of OANDA remain bearish, as 58% (-3%) of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO are also bearish on this currency pair with 58% (+0%) of open short positions.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility