- SWFX market sentiment is 57% bearish
- 55.15% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to SELL
- Pair opened Tuesday's session at 1.1818
- Upcoming Events: German ZEW Economic Sentiment; ECB President Draghi's Speech
The EUR/USD pair has reached higher and hit the upper trend line of the descending medium term pattern. However, the bounce off from the resistance did not occur exactly as expected. The rate slightly moved above the previously drawn patterns resistance line, causing the need for a slight adjustment.
The weekly report on the US unemployment claims provided temporary support for the US dollar during the Thursday's session. The Greenback rose against the Euro by 10 base points to reach the 1.1687 mark. However, the Euro was capable of maintaining strong position until Friday's morning to continue trading above the 1.1735 level.
The Labour Department revealed that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level in six months last week. The report showed the initial jobless claims dropped to 232K in the week ended August 12, down from the prior week's 244K. Data provided a good sign for the Federal Reserve as the further tightening in the labour market could encourage the US economic growth.
Draghi gives a speech
During Tuesday's trading session and the next upcoming 24 hours all of the influence on the EUR/USD currency pair will come from the Euro's side. At 09:00 GMT the German SEW Economic Sentiment is set to be published on Tuesday morning. However, this release is not likely going to cause large fluctuations in the markets.
Main attention should be focused on Wednesday morning, at 07:00 GMT, when Mario Draghi is set to give a speech at the 6th Lindau Meeting on Economic Sciences. This event is almost certainly going to affect the strength of the common European currency. Most likely the EUR will strengthen during the speech, as the ECB President has been pressured into increasing the strength of the currency.
EUR/USD touches channel's boundary
In accordance with expectations, the common European currency continued the surge against the US Dollar in a short-term ascending channel until it met a resistance barrier formed by the upper trend-line of a senior descending channel. For this reason, the currency exchange rate is expected to move downwards. This course is supported by the overall market sentiment, which is 71% bearish.
On the other hand, a summary of various technical indicators for the upcoming trading day sends a strong buy signal. However, both the situation and the forecasts can be altered after release of information on the German Economic Sentiment, which might slightly devaluate the Euro and accelerate the fall.
Hourly Chart
The daily chart is the one, which was adjusted during the recent surge of the Euro. The reason for that is the fact that the high levels not closing prices of the daily chart are better to be used in pattern drawing in the case of the EUR/USD.
Meanwhile, in regards to the daily timeframe, it has to be noted that the 20-day SMA is strengthening the support of the weekly PP near the 1.1760 mark.
Daily Chart
Markets are bearish on the pair
The SWFX trader open positions are 57% short. Meanwhile, on Tuesday 51.91% of pending commands are to sell, compared to 50.41% of sell orders previously.
Traders of OANDA remain largely bearish, as 66.92% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO bank clients are also not changing their opinion, as 61.34% of traders are short, compared to 60.90% previously.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility