- SWFX market sentiment is 60% bearish
- 50.52% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to sell
- Pair opened Thursday's session at 1.1853
- Upcoming Events: US Unemployment Claims; ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
On Thursday morning the common European currency traded almost flat against the US Dollar. This flat trading came in the aftermath of reaching above the 1.19 mark during Wednesday's trading. However, just like on yesterday a continuation of the surge is not expected on Thursday.
ADP reported that non-farm sectors added 178K jobs in July, the second weakest change this year, compared with the upwardly-revised 191K increase in the previous month. According to the report, a slight fall in manufacturing jobs was offset by higher employment for service-related positions. Figures suggested that job creation remained strong enough to see the economy nearing to full employment. However, preliminary data is unlikely to determine the current condition of the US labour market, as the official report is set to come in on Friday.
Two notable US data sets
During Thursday's trading session there are two data releases to look at, if one wants to see fundamental changes from the US Dollar's perspective. At 12:30 GMT the US Unemployment Claims will be published. Later in the day, at 14:00 GMT the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is set to be published. However, it is not expected by the Dukascopy Research team that these data releases will cause a notable reaction in the financial markets.
EUR/USD makes a rebound near 1.1828
In line with expectations, during the previous trading session the currency exchange rate managed to soar to the weekly R2 at 1.1878 and made a subsequent rebound from it. Despite the 23-pip depreciation of the Euro, the pair did not fall beyond the 55-hour SMA near 1.1828, as it was additionally protected by the support line of a rising wedge. Hence, in first half of Thursday, the rate is expected to resume the surge towards the above weekly R2. However, then two scenarios might happen. Either the pair will bounce off from it and, thus, repeat yesterday's scenario, or it will succeed to break to the top and, thus, continue to gradually move within the active pattern. The seconds scenario seems more realistic, especially taking into account that the rate continues to move along the above 55-hour SMA.
Hourly Chart
The daily chart reveals that there is no clear line of resistance for the ascending channel pattern. Rather take the resistance into account as a zone. Moreover, the recent piercings of the resistance levels, as observed on the daily chart, are giving slight hints that the pair might reach even higher new heights. In addition to that, the upper Bollinger band of the daily chart has moved to the 1.1930 mark.
Daily Chart
Markets remain bearish
The situation in the SWFX markets remains unchanged, as SWFX traders are 60% short in regard to the EUR/USD pair. Meanwhile, total number of SWFX trader set up orders are 50.09% bearish.
Traders of OANDA remain bearish, as 63.99% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO bank clients are also not changing their opinion, as 62.52% of traders are short, compared to 63.43% previously.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility