- SWFX market sentiment is 60% bearish
- 59.05% of pending orders in 100-pip range to sell
- Pair opened Tuesday's session at 1.1844
- Upcoming Events: US Core PCE Price Index; US Personal Spending; ISM Manufacturing PMI;
On Tuesday morning the EUR/USD currency exchange rate was in a retreat. However, the decline comes after scoring new heights. The rate, as it was expected by Dukascopy Research team, has reached above the 1.18 mark. Moreover, the gains have been even larger as expected.
Firmly confident figures for the Euro zone's inflation contributed enough to bring the EUR/USD currency pair to a new high on Monday. The Euro advanced against the US Dollar by 0.09% to reach the 1.17429 level following the release of the flash CPI data for July, which managed to satisfy analysts' expectations. Eurostat revealed its flash estimate for inflation in the Euro area rose 1.3% in the reported month, unchanged from June, while the core measure edged higher to 1.2%, above economists' forecasts for a 1.1% increase. Nevertheless, despite consumer prices growth remaining below the ECB's 2% target, the ongoing economic expansion across the 19-country bloc added to confidence that inflation would gradually rise towards the target level.
Minor US data sets
In regards to macroeconomic data releases, on Tuesday there is nothing notable enough to be covered on the live webinar by the Dukascopy Research time, while affecting the US Dollar and commodities. However, there are various minor data releases scheduled, which might affect the strength of the US Dollar, if they are released very different from the average market forecasts. At 12:30 GMT the US Core PCE Price Index and the US Personal Spending data will be published. Afterwards, markets will watch out for the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI.
EUR/USD crosses weekly R1 at 1.1815
The Euro is continuing to advance against the American Dollar in a rising wedge pattern. In the middle of Monday the currency pair created a second confirmation point for the bottom trend-line that is located slightly above the combined support level set up by the weekly PP, the 100% Fibonacci retracement level and the 55-hour SMA near 1.1714. Due to the 93-pip surge, the rate has easily bypassed the weekly R1 at 1.1815 and reached the pattern's upper boundary. Most likely, today the pair will try to get back to the 1.1789 and then 1.1749 levels, provided that it will manage to cross the above weekly R1. However, if experts' prognoses about the US ISM Manufacturing PMI will be confirmed, the pair might end the day in the opposite direction, i.e. near the weekly R2 at 1.1878.
Hourly Chart
The daily chart reveals that the constant short lived consolidation periods are caused from e technical perspective by the daily upper Bollinger band. On Tuesday morning the BB was located just below the 1.1880 mark. The Bollinger band is enforcing the resistance of the upper trend line of the medium scale ascending channel pattern and the weekly R2, which are all located below the just mentioned level.
Daily Chart
Bearish sentiment continues to dominate
The situation in the SWFX markets remains unchanged, as SWFX traders are 60% short in regard to the EUR/USD pair. Meanwhile, total number of SWFX trader set up orders are 53.75% bullish.
Traders of OANDA remain bearish, as 68.17% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO bank clients are also not changing their opinion, as 64.27% of traders are short, compared to 62.58% previously.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility