- SWFX traders are 50% bullish
- 64% of pending commands are to buy the bullion
- The metal's price started the day's trading at 1,217.62
- Upcoming Events: US CPI; US Retail Sales
The hypothesis that the previously active ascending channel pattern remains in force has been confirmed on Friday morning. The surge continues, as the bullion is set to regain some of the lost ground before the fall of the commodity price resumes during the upcoming weeks.
The US Producer Price Index for final demand nudged up 0.1% in June on the back of sustained increases in services cost that managed to offset plunging energy prices, data released by the Labour Department revealed on Thursday. The gain came in as a surprise, as the vast majority of analysts had predicted the index to stay unchanged, and suggested that a recent moderation in inflation was likely temporary.
US consumerism in focus
The week ends with an important data release occurring in the US. At 12:30 GMT the Dukascopy research team will cover the publication of the US CPI and Retail Sales data sets. The data will be shown in various timeframes and ways. However, in general the CPI and Retail Sales will show the situation in the US consumption markets, which show the demand for growth in the country. Meanwhile, one might watch also out for the data coming in at 13:15 GMT, as it has been seen historically that the capacity utilization rate and the industrial production data can suddenly cause major shifts in the US Dollar strength.
XAU/USD trades below 1,220 mark
The metal continues to trade in the borders of the previously established channel up pattern. As it can be observed on the hourly chart, the commodity price recently found support in the combination of the lower trend line of the mentioned channel and the 100-hour SMA at the 1,216 mark. Since then both the support levels have moved upwards in tandem, and they might force the commodity price even higher. However, the metal will face the combined resistance of the 55 and 200-hour SMAs below the 1,220 mark and the monthly S1 at the 1,220.50 level. Although, in the recent history the SMAs have not shown enough force to change the direction of the metal.
Hourly Chart
Slowly and gradually the lower Bollinger band is moving lower. It is set to soon reach the 1,200 mark. In that case, if the trend lines and SMAs of the hourly chart are to be ignored, the range down to the just mentioned level of support will be free. The metal is highly likely setting itself up for a fall.Daily Chart
SWFX traders are neutral
Traders of Dukascopy have become neutral, as 50% of traders are bullish. However, 64% of trader set up orders are to buy the metal.
OANDA Gold traders remain with a bullish outlook, as open positions are 73.97% long on Friday. In the meantime, SAXO bank sentiment is 63.64% bullish.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Market participants foresee the price of gold being above 1,300 in three months
Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold during the last month expect, on average, to see the metal around 1,300 in October. Generally, 59% of participants believe the price will be above 1,300 in ninety days. Meanwhile, most people see the bullion in the 1,350-1400 range, as 31% see the metal in that range.