- SWFX market sentiment is 59% bearish
- Trader pending orders 57% bullish
- Pair opened Monday's session at 1.1403
- Upcoming Events: US JOLTS Job Openings
On Monday morning the common European currency fluctuated around the 1.14 mark against the US Dollar. The reason for the stale fluctuations was the fact that in accordance with the large scale pattern the pair should fall. However, it has a very strong support cluster stopping it from declining just below the 1.14 mark.
US private companies showed a stronger-than-expected job growth in June, indicating that the labour market continued strengthening further. The official Labour Department's report showed that the country's private sector added 222K jobs last month, surpassing market expectations for a modest increase of around 175K in June. Meanwhile, May's figure was revised up to 152K from 138K registered previously.
JOLTS Job Openings in focus
Another quiet Monday is set to be the tenth of July for fundamental event traders. The reason for that is the fact that only one minor data release is scheduled for the day and worth mentioning. It will be the JOLTS Job Openings data at 14:00 GMT.
EUR/USD trades near 1.14 mark
The common European currency bounced off a long term descending channel's resistance line against the US Dollar. As a result of the following decline the pair has recently passed the support of a medium term ascending channel. However, the decline might not continue. The reason for that is the fact that the area from 1.1395 to 1.1374 is full of support levels. All of the hourly SMAs, which are used by Dukascopy Bank analysts are located in that region. In addition, the weekly PP is stationed at 1.1388 mark together with the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level. Due to that reason it can be expected that the currency pair will find support and not continue the decline right away. However, in accordance with the larger scale pattern the Euro should depreciate against the US Dollar.
Hourly Chart
On the daily timeframe only one worth mentioning fact can be observed. The upper Bollinger band of the daily chart, which quite often plays a critical role in the pair's movements, has continued to move higher, as it has reached the 1.15 mark. Due to that reason the band is now strengthening the second weekly resistance, which is located at the 1.1213 mark.
Daily Chart
Bearish sentiment persists
The situation in the SWFX markets remains almost unchanged, as traders remain bearish with 59% of open positions being short, compared to 60% previously. Meanwhile, 57% of trader set up orders are to buy the Euro.
Traders of OANDA are bearish, as 68.73% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO bank clients remain at the bearish front, as 68.89% of their trader open EUR/USD positions are short.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast shows EUR/USD will trade above 1.1250 in October
Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between June 10 and July 10, expect, on average, that the currency exchange rate may trade above 1.12 during the first week of October. In general, 66% (+2%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be above 1.12 in the following ninety days. Meanwhile, 27% (-6%) of respondents expect to see the rate below 1.10.