In the meantime, the most important developments occurred on the daily candle chart, as the pair broke the resistance of the 2021 channel down pattern and the 55-day simple moving average.
Economic Calendar Analysis
The week is expected to have a lot of data releases, which could impact the currency exchange rate from both the EUR and USD sides.
On Wednesday, at 13:30 GMT, the US Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales could cause a move of 6.0 to 14.0 pips, as it has done since September. However, at the same time, the US Producer Price Index and Core Producer Price Index are set to be published. This event has caused moves from 6.9 to 10.9 pips and an anomaly of 48.9 pips occurred in September.
If both data sets reveal a positive or negative surprise, compared to the market forecast, the impact could be combined. On the other hand, the data could contradict one another and cancel out the effect of an impact.
On the same day, at 19:00 GMT the FOMC Meeting Minutes PDF document will be released. Note that the impact of the meeting minutes occurs slowly not suddenly, as the market participants read and interpret the meeting minutes.
On Thursday, market participants are set to watch the weekly US Unemployment Claims at 13:30 GMT. However, this event has not caused any volatility since January 21, when a 16.4 pip move occurred.
Friday will be the day that the Markit Purchasing Managers Indices are published. These survey results reveal what various sector purchasing managers are thinking about the future outlook of their respective sectors. In general, the markets look at the results of the services and manufacturing sectors.
Note that the European PMIs are chopped up. Namely, the surveys are done for various countries and the results are published at different times. This fact spreads out the impact.
The French PMIs are scheduled to be released at 08:15 GMT and could cause an initial move of 9.0 to 20.3 pips. The German survey results will be out at 08:30 GMT and they have created moves from 10.4 to 41.5 pips since September. At 09:00 GMT, the European releases will end with the combined Euro Zone results that could cause an additional move from 7.0 to 13.0 pips.
In addition, take into account that survey data from various countries can show various sentiment. Namely, the French could be pessimistic and cause a drop of the EUR and, afterwards, good results from Germany could create a surge of the European common currency.
The week will end for the EUR/USD with the US PMIs at 14:45 GMT. The release could cause a move from 7.8 to 26.4 pips.
Click on the link below to find out more about the data releases of this and other currency exchange rates.
EUR/USD hourly chart's review
It is likely that the exchange rate could gain support from the 55– and 100-hour SMAs near 1.2130. Thus, some upside potential could prevail in the market in the short run. Note that the rate could face the resistance level—the weekly R1 at 1.2175.If the predetermined resistance level holds, the currency pair could bounce off and decline to the weekly PP at 1.2097. Otherwise, the pair could target the psychological level at 1.2200 within the following trading session.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, the pair has broken the combined resistance of the upper trend line of the 2021 two month decline channel down pattern and the 55-day simple moving averages.
In the case of the rate continuing to surge, it could test the late January high level at 1.2200. This level caused the rates January 20/February 5 decline.
Daily chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Traders are short
Since Monday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange trader open positions were short, as 55% of open position volume was in short positions.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range around the pair were 72% to sell the pair.