GBP/USD declines as forecast

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

The 55 and 200-hour simple moving averages provided the GBP/USD with the required resistance to push the pair down. By the middle of Tuesday's GMT trading hours, the currency exchange rate had retreated to the weekly simple S1 pivot point at 1.2395.

If the pivot point fails to hold, the rate could drop to 1.2350.

Economic Calendar



Data releases affecting the GBP/USD are set to start on Wednesday, as at 06:00 GMT the UK Consumer Price Index will be released. The rate could move more than 30 pips on the publication of the CPI.

Next UK data release is set to be out at 06:00 GMT on Thursday. The UK Retail Sales could cause a move of 20 pips.

On the same day, at 12:30 GMT, the US Unemployment Claims are scheduled to be released. Most likely, the event would reveal another major decline in US employment.

Also on Thursday, at 13:45 US Manufacturing PMI could cause a move, as in February and March it created 24.1 and 29.9 pip moves.

Last but not least, a notable reaction of above then pips could be created by the US Durable Goods orders.

GBP/USD short-term review

On Tuesday morning, the rate stood at the weekly S1 at 1.2395, which was about to get pierced.

If the rate passes the pivot point, a decline to the 1.2350 level should occur. At that level the rate would find psychological support. In addition, technical support should be provided by the monthly pivot point at 1.2345.

On the other hand, in the case of a bounce off from the weekly pivot point, the pair could trade sideways between the 1.2420 and 1.2400 levels. That would occur until the hourly simple moving averages approach the pair.

Hourly Chart


On the daily candle chart, the pair has bounced off the resistance of the 55 and 200-day simple moving averages.

In regards to the future, the rate could decline to the 1.2200 level, which provided the rate with support at the start of April.

Daily chart


Traders go short



Since the middle of Monday's GMT trading hours, the sentiment on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was 53% short.

On Tuesday, the sentiment was 56% short.

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