- SWFX market sentiment is 61% bullish (-1%)
- Pending orders in 100-pip range are to neutral
- Empty trading sessions until Thursday
On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair retraced back up to the resistance, which reversed its previous surge. However, the move was caused by the migration deal made in Germany.
The Greenback strengthened against the European single currency, following the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data release on Monday at 14:00 GMT. The EUR/USD currency pair lost six pips, or 0.05%, to continue fluctuating in the 1.1610 area.
The Institute for Supply Management released the monthly US Purchasing Managers' Index data that came out better-than-expected of 60.2, and better from the previous period.
Ross J Burland stands: "It appears that steady business expansion and elevated optimism persisted despite elevated trade concerns. Much of the upside surprise in the topline index in the June report, however, can be attributed to the suppliers delivery index."
Empty sessions until Thursday for macroeconomics
There will be no macroeconomic releases that might influence the EUR/USD pair until Thursday when there will be two of them.
So stay put until Thursday. In the meantime, one can join the Weekly Fundamental Event Review webinar, which will take place at 12:00 GMT on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, note that on Thursday there will be two releases. Namely, ADP Non-farm Employment Change at 12:15 GMT and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at 14:00 GMT.
Euro retraces back to resistance
By the middle of Tuesday's trading session the resulting surge had reached the dominant resistance line, which is located near the 1.1670 mark. The resistance line managed to hold its ground. However, support levels where approaching from the bottom.
Due to these factors combined one needs to look out for a breaking of the trend line.
Hourly Chart
The common European currency has fallen considerably against the US Dollar since mid-April which marks a 5.95% plunge within a couple of weeks. The pair started to recover on May 30 after hitting a six-month low of 1.1550. It is expected that this up-move continues in the medium term.The pair has fluctuated in the 1.1545/1.1800 range since mid-May. The 1.18 mark should eventually surrender, thus allowing the pair to appreciate until the 200-day SMAs near 1.20.
Daily Chart
Bulls remain in charge
EUR/USD remains strongly bullish with 61% of open positions being long (-1%).
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 55% bullish and the US Dollar is 61% bearish. Despite the strong fall apparent last week, traders nevertheless expect some weakening of the US Dollar. In case the Euro is starting to become more bullish, this might indicate to appreciation in the medium term.
OANDA traders have abandoned their strongly bullish view, as 57% of open positions were long on Tuesday. Previously, 54% were long. A different situation is apparent with Saxo Bank clients who have once more slightly decreased the number of long positions to 52% (-1%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility