USD/SEK 4H Chart: Channel Down

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Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
© Dukascopy Bank SA
USD/SEK is approaching the lower bound of the four-month bullish channel, which in itself is a strong 'buy' signal. Nevertheless, the pair has recently confirmed the 16-month resistance trend-line at 8.68, and the risks are thus heavily skewed to the downside. The negative bias is also confirmed by market sentiment, as the US Dollar is overbought—62% of positions are long.

We may expect rallies from 8.41/39, but bullish reactions are to be limited by a dense supply area between 8.5900 and 8.5450. An even stronger resistance zone is at 8.71/8.68. Once under 8.39, the rate will be expected to aim for the monthly S2 at 8.2675, while the next destination may well be the June low at 8.0936.
© Dukascopy Bank SA
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