AUD/USD 1W Chart: Channel Down

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
© Dukascopy Bank SA
AUD/USD is currently trading near the upper edge of the multi-year bearish channel, and this implies a strong negative bias towards the Aussie. The base case scenario is thus the exchange rate bouncing off of 0.7730/00 and then sliding down to 60 cents, where it is going to be met by the 2008 low and the lower bound of the channel. However, being short at this very moment is risky. For one, a substantial number of weekly technical indicators is bullish. At the same time, there is a low possibility of active selling, being that 72% of the SWFX traders are already short the Australian Dollar. If resistance at 0.7730/00 is broken, the 200-week SMA at 0.87 will be the first target, followed by the down-trend at 0.94.
© Dukascopy Bank SA
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