USD/JPY technical analysis

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
USD/JPY currency pair is in a state of consolidation after a significant pullback from the major resistance level at 149.000. The long-term trend remains upward, as the price is trading comfortably above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently around 146.300. However, the recent rejection from the 149.000 level has introduced short-term uncertainty, with the price now hovering around the 24-period SMA and the 147.760 mark. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned near the 50 midline, indicating a neutral market sentiment with no immediate overbought or oversold pressure, suggesting the pair has room to move in either direction.



For a bullish continuation, buyers would need to establish firm control and push the price back above the minor resistance at 148.200. A sustained break above this level would signal that the recent pullback was merely a healthy correction within a larger uptrend. This would open the path for a retest of the formidable 149.000 resistance. If bulls can overcome this ceiling, it would mark a significant continuation of the primary trend, potentially targeting the psychological 150.000 level. The fact that the underlying trend is strong, as shown by the rising 100-period SMA, provides a solid foundation for this potential outcome. Conversely, the bearish scenario would gain traction if the price fails to overcome the 148.200 resistance and instead breaks below the recent support found around 147.300. Such a move would indicate that sellers are taking control in the short term and that the correction may be deeper than initially thought. A break of this support would likely lead to a test of the next major support zone around 146.000. This level is particularly significant as it represents a previous resistance area and aligns closely with the 100-period SMA, making it a powerful area of potential support where buyers might re-emerge. A break below this confluence of support would seriously challenge the integrity of the current uptrend.
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