- Neil Williams, Hermes Asset Management
The Euro zone's bond markets tumbled shortly, while the Euro moved markedly higher after the European Central Bank signalled on Thursday that it would begin to cut back the stimulus program starting from April 2017. The ECB said it would lower its 80 billion euros monthly asset purchases to 60 million euros but prolong the QE asset buys until December next year., pointing to low inflation that, according to the latest forecasts, was projected to achieve only 1.7% in 2019. In the meantime, market analysts expected the Central bank to leave its asset purchases at the current levels for 6 more months. The Bank bought 1.4 billion euros in bonds since the start of the QE program. The ECB kept its inflation forecast unchanged at 0.2% for 2016 but revised it slightly up to 1.3% and 1.5% for 2017 and 2018, respectively. The Bank also left its benchmark and deposit rate at 0.0% and –0.4% , respectively, in line with economists' expectations. Overall, the Euro zone's recovery remained solid despite Britain's decision to leave the European Union and Donald Trump's surprise victory in the US presidential elections. After the announcement, the Euro initially jumped to 1.0875 against the US Dollar but failed to hold the momentum, falling back to 1.0753.
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