RBA uncomfortable with strong Aussie Dollar; in no rush to cut rates again

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
"Combined with the appreciation of the exchange rate and the low level of inflation globally, this suggested that inflation in Australia was likely to remain low over the next year or two"
-  Reserve Bank of Australia

The Reserve Bank of Australia voiced its discontent with the Australian Dollar's recent appreciation, which puts economy's' transition towards non-mining activity at risk. The Aussie Dollar has gained more than 12% in the past three months, and is the best performer after Canada's namesake among a group of 10 major currencies, supported by lower expectations of US monetary policy tightening and recovering commodity prices. However, RBA policy makers noted that "the recent rebound in commodity prices, even if sustained, was unlikely to lead to any material change in mining investment over the next couple of years." The central bank, in minutes of its April 5 meeting where interest rates were left unchanged at a record-low 2%, said that persistently low inflation would provide room to ease monetary policy further, in case a necessity arises. The RBA noted the economy's 3% growth in 2015 was better than expected and "broadly consistent" with last year's strengthened jobs market. It said recent information suggested the economy "had continued to grow at a moderate pace" in early 2016. The RBA meeting minutes stated that the bank expected inflation in Australia to remain low over the next year or two, partly due to the impact of the highest exchange rate.

A growing number of economists think the RBA will remain on hold throughout 2016.


© Dukascopy Bank SA

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