Overview of the previous week, this week's key events

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
Another signs that the Swiss economy remains highly vulnerable to the on-going financial and sovereign debt crisis in the neighbouring Eurozone have emerged during the last week, as the Swiss National Bank decided to retain the currency ceiling at 1.20 per Euro, highlighting risks to the economy from external developments. The SNB President Thomas Jordan pointed out that a highly valued Swiss Franc may compromise price stability and is posing serious consequences for the economy. Therefore, the minimum exchange rate remains a priority, in order to avoid an undesirable tightening of monetary conditions and implementations of strict austerity measures for Switzerland. In the meantime, the target range for the three-month Libor was also put on hold between 0.0% and 0.25%, as economic conditions are expected to gradually improve both in Switzerland and in the world economy over the next 12 months. Amid certain risks to economic recovery, investors' demand for the Swiss Franc was not so high and the EUR/CHF closed at 1.225 on Friday.

Moreover, another important event that is likely to have a long-term impact on the financial markets was the announcement of the Fed's Chairman Ben Bernanke that the central bank is ready to begin winding down its unprecedented easing programme later this year. The QE tapering might begin at the end of 2013 and will be completely halted by the middle of the next year, if the world's largest economy continues to perform in line with the central bank's expectations. However, recent data raised concerns that the economy still struggles to grow as it was expected, as the number of initial jobless claims rose more than expected, while activity at manufacturing sector slowed. Therefore, the Dollar Index rose for the third consecutive day on Friday, after surging 1% on June 19 when the Federal Open Market Committee left the monthly pace of bond purchases at $85 billion. 

During this week a series of economic reports will show GDP data from the U.S., the U.K. and Canada. However, the data is not expected to show any improvement in any economy. The only economy that can show a better-than-expected performance is Britain. According to analysts' expectations, the economy has expanded by 0.3% in the first quarter of this year, but recent data is showing that the economic recovery is on hold. Moreover, the BoE has decided not to expand its asset purchase programme during the last policy meeting, while Britain's retail sales bounced back more than initially was expected in May, as consumers spent more online and on food, adding to evidence of acceleration in economic growth in the second quarter of 2013 and providing some relief for the central bank.

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