ISM Manufacturing PMI at 48.7%

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Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
The October 2025 ISM® Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.7%, signaling the eighth consecutive month of contraction in the U.S. manufacturing sector. This marks a 0.4-point decrease from September's 49.1%, driven primarily by declines in production and inventories. Despite ongoing weakness in manufacturing, the broader U.S. economy continues to expand, with the PMI® reading corresponding to an estimated +1.8% annualized GDP growth, extending the economy's 66-month growth streak since April 2020.



Approximately 58% of manufacturing GDP contracted in October, and the share in strong contraction (PMI® ≤ 45%) rose sharply to 41%, highlighting growing pressure within the sector. Most major indexes remained in contraction territory: New Orders (49.4%) and Production (48.2%) declined, while Employment (46.0%) showed persistent job reductions. Supplier Deliveries (54.2%) indicated slower delivery times, often seen when demand begins to strengthen. Inventories (45.8%) continued to fall, contributing to the lower PMI®. Prices (58.0%) increased for the 13th straight month, though at a slower pace than in September. Among the six largest industries, only Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products and Transportation Equipment reported growth, while twelve industries—including Machinery, Chemicals, Petroleum, Electronics, and Wood Products—remained in contraction.



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