© Ross Strachan
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In recent years silver prices have been following gold prices quite closely. During last 5 years silver prices have moved in the same direction as gold, though more sharply. Therefore, the recent sharp decline in silver in comparison to a slightly smaller but still significant decrease in gold is not very surprising, as silver is a notoriously volatile market, and for this reason can be moved by larger amount more easily.
What major events might affect silver prices during this year?
I believe that in the short term we will see some price recovery in metals, both - gold and silver. Given the recent very sharp movement, I believe that we can expect silver to recover some of its recent losses, perhaps up to 26$ per ounce. However, later in the year and in 2014, we are gloomier about the prospects of silver, as we consider that an escalation in the Eurozone crisis will boost demand for gold as a safe haven and possibly will dim the industrial outlook that is likely to prove a drag on silver prices.
What is your forecast for silver price for the short and the long term? How low in your opinion silver can drop before any major recovery happens?
We expect silver price to rise to 26$ an ounce later this year, before declining in 2014. We forecast price to go back below 20$ an ounce in the subsequent years. Mine production is likely to continue to rise with a number of mines with operating costs well below this level that would most probably form a drag on silver price. Moreover, we are relatively pessimistic about global economic prospects, and therefore industrial demand, which obviously is a key element of the outlook for silver demand.