- 55% of all pending orders are to buy the Greenback
- 57% of all open positions are short
- The nearest resistance is around 111.40
- Immediate support rests at 110.60
- Upcoming events: US Pending Home Sales, US Beige Book, Chicago PMI
The mood of American shoppers deteriorated for the second consecutive month in May. The Conference Board reported on Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 117.9 points in the reported month, falling behind expectations for 120.1 points. Apart from that, April's reading was revised down to 119.4 from initially reported 120.3 points. The share of consumers saying business conditions were "good" fell to 29.4% from 30.8% in April, whereas the share of those saying business conditions were "bad" remained unchanged at 13.7% in May. The share of shoppers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months fell to 21.3% from 25.1% in April, whereas the share of those expecting more jobs to be created over the same period of time declined to 18.6% in May from 21.9% in the preceding month.
Meanwhile, 29.9% of the respondents stated that there were plentiful jobs, compared to 30.3% in April. Earlier in the day, the Commerce Department reported that consumer spending climbed 0.4% last month, the largest gain since December. Overall, US consumers maintained the positive outlook for the economy.
Most attention turns to US fundamentals
Focus remains on the US fundamentals today, such as the Pending Home Sales. They are a leading indicator of trends of the housing market in the US. They capture residential housing contract activity of existing single-family homes. As the housing market is considered to be a sensitive factor to the US economy, it generates some volatility for the USD. Another relevant event will be the US Beige Book, which is released by the Fed. The Book reports on the current US economic situation. Through interviews with key business contacts, economists, market experts and other, sources are gathered by each of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. The survey gives a picture of the overall US economic growth. An optimistic view of those authorities is considered to be positive for the USD. Finally, the Chicago PMI, which captures business conditions across Illinois, Indiana and Michigan. This index is an indicator of business trends and is interrelated with the ISM Manufacturing Index. It is widely used to indicate the overall economic condition in the US.
USD/JPY gravitates towards 111.00
As was anticipated, the resistance area circa 111.40 caused the US Dollar to weaken against the Japanese Yen on Tuesday, with the weekly S1 at 110.76 limiting the losses. The pair remains contained within a specific trading range, namely between 110.50 and 111.40, leaving little room for another leg down. However, technical indicators suggest that bears are likely to prevail today, although from a broad technical perspective the Buck should strengthen. In either case neither the immediate support nor the resistance are expected to be pierced, leaving the USD/JPY pair to ‘consolidate' for another day ahead of the US NFP data.Daily chart
The Buck's attempts to recover were once again dampened by the bearish trend-line, which kept the pair at bay for three weeks in a row now. As a result, the Greenback is likely to keep weakening, with the US NFP data eyed as a potential trend reversal.
Hourly chart
There are 57% of traders holding long positions today (previously 58%), whereas 55% of all pending orders are to buy the Greenback.
At the moment, 55% of OANDA clients are long the US Dollar against the Yen, while the remaining 45% are short. In addition, Saxo Bank clients' sentiment once again improved, as 61% of their open positions are now long.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders are becoming increasingly bullish on the Dollar
According to the poll that gathered forecasts between April 31 and May 31, traders expect the US Dollar to appreciate to 112.98 yen in three months' time, while the forecast for March 31 was 117.66 yen. It is also worth noticing that 67% of all forecasts fall above 111 yen, which is above the current spot price. The majority of people who voted expect the US Dollar to cost somewhere between 115.50 and 117.00 yen in three months, with 18% of survey participants choosing this trading range. Furthermore, the 112.50-114.00 range was the second most popular one, with 16% of the voters choosing it.