- 54% of all pending orders are to sell the US Dollar
- 65% of all open positions are now short
- The nearest resistance is at 114.15
- Immediate support rests at 113.47
- Upcoming events: US Import Price Index, US Monthly Budget Statement
The number of job openings in the US rose in March, according to the JOLTS monthly report. Data from the US Bureau of Labour Statistics released on Tuesday showed that the US job openings increased to 5.74M over the course of March, following the previous month's downwardly revised figure of 5.68M. Meanwhile, analysts anticipated a slight decrease to 5.67M. Job openings grew across business and professional services as well as in local and state government education, while they declined in education services. The number of hires over the reported month was changed insignificantly, coming in at 5.3M with an increase in social assistance and healthcare services, though a modest decrease was registered in logging and mining.
Moreover, data showed that total separations, including layoffs, quits and discharges, were little changed at 5.1M in March. The total number of separated employees diminished for government and was slightly changed for the private sector. Separately, the US employment data reported earlier this month suggested that the job market is likely to continue being strong.
US Import Price Index and the Monthly Budget Statement
Wednesday has arrived, but there are not many events worth paying attention to today, but nonetheless, the US Import Price Index is due. It informs the changes in the price of imported products into the US. The higher the cost of imported goods, the stronger the effects they will have on inflation, redunding in a higher probability of a rate rise. Another event that could have some impact will be the US Monthly Budget Statement, which summarizes the financial activities of federal entities, disbursing officers, and Federal Reserve banks. A positive budget statement that receipts exceed budgetary outlays is seen as bullish for the USD.
USD/JPY attempts to climb over 114.00
The US Dollar outperformed the Japanese Yen for another day yesterday, adding more than 70 pips, but still unable to close above the 114.00 mark. Technical studies keep suggesting the Buck is to post more gains, but the immediate resistance area around 114.15, formed by the weekly and the monthly R2s, could prevent the USD/JPY pair from edging higher today. As a result, risks are skewed to the downside, with the weekly R1 at 113.47 being the nearest possible support. On the other hand, a boost from fundamental and political factors could provide the Greenback with sufficient bullish momentum to climb over the immediate resistance and approach the 115.00 markDaily chart
The ascending channel on the hourly chart failed to hold longer, as an upside breach occurred yesterday, with the 23.60% Fibo even failing to contain the volatility. Nevertheless, the USD/JPY pair is reluctant to maintain trade above 114.00, but even if the Buck receives more impetus for a leg up, the upside potential is still seen as limited, as a certain resistance line keeps preventing the pair from edging higher for two weeks now.
Hourly chart
There are now 65% of traders holding short positions (previously 63%), whereas 54% of all pending orders are to sell the US Dollar.
Right now 56% of OANDA clients are bulls, adding one percent from before, as the bullish sentiment has been holding around the same level for some time now. In the meantime, Saxo Bank clients manage to retain a neutral outlook towards the US Dollar, being that 50% of their open positions are now short and the remaining 50% are long.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders are becoming increasingly bullish on the Dollar
According to the poll that gathered forecasts between April 10 and May 10, traders expect the US Dollar to appreciate to 110.99 yen in three months' time, while the forecast for March 31 was 117.66 yen. It is also worth noticing that 53% of all forecasts fall above 111 yen, which is still below the current spot price. The majority of people who voted expect the US Dollar to cost somewhere between 112.50 and 114.00 yen in three months, with 18% of the survey participants choosing this trading ranges. At the same time, the second most popular interval was the 115.50-117.00 one, with 15% of survey participants forecasting this trading range.