- 65% of all pending orders to purchase the Buck
- 70% of traders hold long positions
- Immediate resistance lies at 111.26
- The closest support rests around 110.80
- Upcoming events: US Initial Jobless Claims, Fed Chair Yellen's Speech, US New Home Sales
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, hitting the highest level over the past seven weeks, official figures revealed on Thursday. The US Department of Labour reported initial jobless claims rose by 15,000 to a total of 258,000 in the week ended March 17, up from the preceding week's upwardly revised reading of 243,000. In the meantime, market analysts expected unemployment claims to hit 240,000 during the reported week. Nevertheless, even despite the uptick in last week's claims, US labour market remained solid, with employers being slow to dismiss workers, as it becomes rather difficult to fill vacancies with experienced employees. The February figure marked the 80th consecutive week of claims below 300,000, which is widely considered as a healthy jobs market.
Apart from that, Thursday's report also featured yearly alterations for previously reported initial and continuing claims, with the latter benchmark dropping 39,000 to settle at 2M over the week ended March 10, while the unemployment rate among those eligible for jobless benefits managed to decline to 1.4% from the 1.5% reading registered previously.
US Durable Goods Orders, Markit Services and Manufacturing PMIs
Once again only significant fundamental data form the US is due, namely the Durable Goods Orders. They are a measure of the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, such as motor vehicles and appliances. As those durable products often involve large investments, they are sensitive to the US economic situation. The final figure shows the state of US production activity. However, in Core Durable Goods Orders, the transport sector is excluded in order to capture a more accurate reading. Furthermore, the Markit Manufacturing PMI is due. It captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the Manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in the US. Additionally, attention should be paid to the Services PMI, which captures business conditions in the services sector. It also dominates a large part of total GDP and is an important indicator of the overall economic condition in the US.USD/JPY attempts to reverse polarity
The US Dollar slid against the Japanese Yen again yesterday, failing to find support at the 111.00 major level, which was expected to trigger a rebound. Nevertheless, the USD/JPY pair has the opportunity to reverse momentum today and being recovering from its nearly 400 pips slump over the last eight days. Despite the possible rally, gains are likely to be very limited, with the 111.60 mark expected to be the ceiling. On the other hand, if US President Trump manages to broker a deal concerning the new healthcare system today, the Greenback will have the potential to even retake the weekly S1 at 111.78.Daily chart
The USD/JPY currency pair successfully retested the descending channel's resistance line earlier today, as it is seen on the hourly chart. From the technical perspective the Buck should now continue falling, until the lower boundary is put to the test once again, possibly near 109.00.
Hourly chart
There are 70% of traders holding long positions today, compared to 69% on Thursday. Meanwhile, there are 65% of pending orders to purchase the Buck, up from 49% yesterday.
Right now 63% of OANDA clients are bulls, compared to 60% on Thursday. In the meantime, Saxo Bank clients retain a positive outlook towards the US Dollar, being that 64% of their open positions are now long and the remaining 36% are short.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders are becoming increasingly bullish on the Dollar
According to the poll that gathered forecasts between February 24 and March 24, traders expect the US Dollar to appreciate to 115.27 yen in three months' time, while the forecast for March 31 was 117.66 yen. It is also worth noticing that 66% of all forecasts fall above 114 yen, which is above the current spot price. The majority of people voted expect the US Dollar to cost somewhere between 118.50 and 120.00 yen in three months, with 20% of the survey participants choosing this trading range. At the same time, the second most popular interval was the 115.50-117.00 one, with 14% of survey participants choosing it.