- SWFX market sentiment is 60% bearish
- Trader pending orders are 53% bullish
- Pair opened Monday's session at 1.1190
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Upcoming Events: FOMC Member Harker's Speech; FOMC Member Kashkari's Speech; FOMC Member Brainard's Speech; FOMC Member Evans's Speech
After reaching the 1.12 mark the EUR/USD currency exchange rate has paused its surge. However, most clues indicate that the walk of victory of the Euro against the US Dollar is still set to continue, as the Buck keeps losing value in the financial markets.
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped unexpectedly last month, official figures revealed on Thursday. The US Department of Labour reported that initial jobless claims fell to 232K in the week ending May 12, following the preceding week's 236K and posting the third consecutive decline. In the meantime, analysts held expectations for an increase to 240K. Claims remained below the 300K level for 115 straight weeks, the longest stretch since 1973.
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Upcoming events: FOMC speeches
There are no significant data sets about to be released that could influence the financial markets. However, the calendar is full of other events. There are four FOMC member speeches scheduled to occur during Monday's session. First of all at 14:00 GMT Harker will give a speech. Afterwards, at 14:30 GMT, Kashkari will speak publicly. At 23:00 GMT Brainard is set to speak, and, last but not least, Evans will give a speech at 01:10 GMT.
Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD reaches above 1.12 mark
On Monday morning the common European currency had slightly retreated against the US Dollar, as the currency exchange rate retreated down to the combined support of the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1190 and the monthly R2 at 1.1187. It is most likely that the currency pair will remain near the support cluster, as it has surged majorly during the previous week, and a period of consolidation is to be expected. However, afterwards the pair is most likely set to continue the surge.
Daily chart
The hourly chart shows that all of the Friday's trading session was a surge for the Euro against the US Dollar until it reached above the 1.12 mark. The currency pair stopped the surge, when, as indicated by the bent Bollinger bands of the hourly chart, the gains were exhausted. Due to that factor mainly it is assumed that the most recent decline of the pair is just a consolidation.Hourly chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Market sentiment strongly bearish
SWFX traders remain bearish in regard to the Euro, as 60% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, 53% of trader set up orders are to buy.
OANDA traders remain largely bearish, as 70.93% of trader open positions are short on Monday, compared to 66.30% previously. In addition, SAXO bank clients are also bearish, as 67.27% of open positions are short, compared to the 65.16% positions on Friday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.10 in August
© Dukascopy Bank SATraders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between April 22 and today expect, on average, the currency pair to trade around 1.10 in August. In general, 55% (+1%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be above 1.10 in ninety days, and 41% (+2%) see it above 1.12.